Geopolitics and sticker shock kept this year’s spring market from fully taking off
This spring selling season, traditionally the industry’s pressure cooker, unfolded as a slow burn instead.
Fresh data from Redfin showed pending home sales down 4.1% year over year for the four weeks ending April 12. That's the steepest drop in more than a year, with activity weakening across nearly every major US metro.
Sales fell in 43 of the 50 largest metros, led by double‑digit declines in Providence, Houston and New York’s Nassau County, while only seven markets – including San Francisco, West Palm Beach and Miami – posted gains.
Touring traffic told a similar story: home‑showing activity was up just 11% from January, compared with a 40% jump over the same stretch last year, according to ShowingTime, underscoring how subdued this year’s spring pipeline has been.
Against that backdrop, Redfin reported a median US sale price of $393,059, up 2.3% annually and the largest increase in a year.
The typical monthly payment on the median‑priced home slipped 2.5% from a year earlier to about $2,732 at a 6.3% mortgage rate, but remained well above early‑March levels.
National Association of Realtors figures pointed to a similar pattern in closed sales, with March existing‑home transactions dropping 3.6% from February even after mortgage rates eased from recent peaks.
The National Association of Realtors says March sales dropped 3.6 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units, with economic uncertainty and limited housing supply weighing on activity.https://t.co/WDM7fZcklX
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) April 13, 2026
Redfin agents on the ground described a market where only the most insulated borrowers pushed ahead.
“Luxury buyers aren’t letting the high interest rates dissuade them, but for buyers on a tighter budget, the difference can be enough to kill affordability,” said Stacey Bryant, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston.
“Cost‑conscious buyers are also jittery about the rising prices of other things–like gas, food and energy–cutting into their budgets.”
Iran war kept rate risks in focus
Mortgage markets have already been rattled by the Iran war, which drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher and recently pushed the average 30‑year fixed rate back above 6.3%, according to Freddie Mac.
Only a minority of buyers directly paused plans because of the conflict, but many saw it as another nudge to wait out volatility rather than stretch for today’s prices.
Inventory ticked up but not enough to reset pricing
On the supply side, new listings slipped 1.4% year over year to about 103,800 for the period, while active listings fell 2.7%. That's the biggest drop since 2023, leaving months of supply at roughly 4.2, a level still consistent with a mildly seller‑tilted market.
For mortgage professionals, today’s challenge lies in persuading seasoned borrowers and move‑up buyers to act while rates hover in the 6% range and prices edge higher, rather than waiting for a “perfect” entry point that might never arrive.
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