NFAP warns Trump’s immigration policies could cost the US millions of workers and trillions in GDP
A sweeping new analysis from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) has projected that the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies could shrink the United States workforce by 15.7 million people by 2035, with far-reaching consequences for economic growth and federal debt.
The study is the first to quantify both the short- and long-term effects of the administration’s combined legal and illegal immigration restrictions.
Workforce losses and economic fallout
The NFAP report found that the policies would “reduce the projected number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035 and lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third, harming U.S. living standards.”
The analysis estimated a potential labor loss of 19 million worker years by 2028 and 102 million worker years by 2035.
“The policies would reduce the projected cumulative goods and services produced (GDP) in America by $1.9 trillion, or $5,612 per person, from 2025 to 2028, and by $12.1 trillion, or $34,369 per person, from 2025 to 2035,” the NFAP said.
The projected drop in GDP growth is significant: the annual rate is expected to fall from 1.8% to 1.3% between 2025 and 2035, according to the NFAP’s modeling based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data.
The report also forecasted a sharp increase in federal debt, with public debt rising by $252 billion by 2028 and $1.74 trillion by 2035, not including additional spending on border enforcement.
ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson said September’s 32,000 private-sector job losses highlight cautious hiring by US employers, adding weight to expectations of further Fed rate cuts.https://t.co/Hf2G83TH5O
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) October 1, 2025
Immigrants’ role in labor and productivity
Immigrants have been central to US labor force growth, accounting for 84.7% of new workers between 2019 and 2024, the NFAP noted.
“It is wrong to assume that shrinking immigration helps U.S. workers when job growth slows,” said Mark Regets, a senior fellow at NFAP.
“Immigrants both create demand for the goods and services produced by U.S.-born workers and work alongside them in ways that increase productivity for both groups. While it is just one factor, we shouldn't be surprised that opportunities for U.S.-born workers are falling at the same time an estimated one million fewer immigrants may be in the labor force.”
The administration’s policies include suspending and reducing refugee admissions, a 2025 travel ban, ending Temporary Protected Status and humanitarian parole, and restricting international student work opportunities.
The NFAP’s estimates do not account for the likely additional economic drag from restricting high-skilled foreign workers, which economists say has historically driven up to half of US productivity growth.
The Department of Labor has warned that mass deportations could drive up food prices and disrupt industries reliant on immigrant labor.
“Labor force growth is a crucial part of the economic growth that advances a country’s living standards and facilitates the financing of existing debts and obligations,” the NFAP wrote.
The White House has defended its approach, arguing that it will create more opportunities for American workers. However, the data suggest that with an aging native-born population and slower population growth, immigrants remain essential to sustaining the US workforce.
Housing and mortgage industry faces ripple effects
A shrinking labor force, driven by millions fewer immigrants, has the potential to dampen demand for both home purchases and rental housing, as fewer workers translate to fewer households formed and less overall population growth.
Moreover, 51.2% of US homeowners and renters agree that reduced immigration could result in fewer construction workers and fewer new homes, making housing more expensive, according to a national survey commissioned by Redfin.
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