While the immediate threat of disruption has eased, the aftershocks could linger for some borrowers and lenders
The federal government reopened Thursday after a record 43-day shutdown, with President Trump signing a stopgap bill that will fund operations through January 30.
While the immediate threat of disruption has eased, the aftershocks could linger—especially for borrowers and lenders relying on government-backed programs.
USDA and flood insurance programs resume, but delays loom
The shutdown forced the USDA to halt new rural loan guarantees, leaving buyers and lenders in limbo. With operations resuming, the agency faces a bottleneck as it works through a backlog of applications.
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which underwrites over 90% of residential flood insurance policies nationwide, is also resuming new policy processing. However, buyers closing on properties in flood-prone areas may still face delays as the program clears pending evaluations and issuances.
FHA and VA loans, which rely on federal staff for processing and endorsements, experienced delays as well. While some operations continued on a limited basis, the backlog grew.
Beyond the immediate impact, industry leaders flagged broader concerns about the reliability of government-backed lending. Every time there’s a shutdown, borrowers start to wonder if their financing is secure. Lenders have to reassure them, but the uncertainty is real.
Past shutdowns have shown that even short disruptions can ripple through the market. Government shutdowns have historically delayed closings, increased costs, and created confusion for both borrowers and lenders.
Data gaps cloud Fed’s next move
The shutdown also disrupted the release of key federal economic reports, leaving the Federal Reserve with incomplete data ahead of its December rate decision.
“All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
Some economists suggested that the lack of official data could sway the Fed to hold rates steady, though resumed releases may shift market expectations.
“That depends on whether government data for GDP growth, inflation, and employment are out by the December meeting,” Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist with the Investment Company Institute (ICI), told Mortgage Professional America.
“Without this data, I don’t think it would be a surprise if the Fed holds in December. Powell has already telegraphed that intention to the market. If the data starts coming out again, market expectations for a cut could move dramatically depending on what it shows about the state of the economy.”
Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute, says the Fed’s December rate decision hinges on full government data for GDP, inflation, and employment. https://t.co/PqJyQ4CRIY
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 11, 2025
Consumer confidence restores
The end of the shutdown would likely restore confidence among Americans who have been hesitant to make large purchases. The uncertainty and fear of lost or delayed income would subside, encouraging buyers to proceed with home and car purchases.
The 45% currently holding off could shrink, returning closer to pre-shutdown levels (21% or lower), especially among those who were “a little less likely” to buy.
Many buyers who delayed purchases (21%) or canceled plans (15%) may re-enter the market, leading to a surge in homebuying and other big-ticket purchases. This “pent-up demand” could result in a temporary spike in housing activity, benefiting mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and related industries.
Industry calls for lasting solutions
Scott Olson, executive director of the Community Home Lenders of America (CHLA), welcomed the reopening but urged Congress to address recurring risks. “Progress towards ending the federal government shutdown is welcome and should help normalize the operations of various federal mortgage programs,” Olson said.
“At the same time, this will likely not be the last federal government shutdown. So CHLA calls on Congress and federal agencies to work together to correct budgetary anomalies that have shuttered execution of certain new loans during shutdowns—such as Rural Housing Service mortgage loans and FHA Reverse Mortgage (HECM) loans—even as other programs like FHA forward loans are generally not affected.”
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