Analysts warn consumers could feel the effects sooner than expected
President Donald Trump announced Friday that his administration will conduct a “major” investigation into imported furniture, a move that could pave the way for sweeping new tariffs.
“Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. He added the review would be finished within 50 days, though similar national security investigations have historically taken longer.
A White House official told Politico that Trump was referring to the Commerce Department’s Section 232 investigation, launched in March under the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which covers timber, lumber, and wood products, including furniture.
Economic pressure on imports
The United States imported about $25.5 billion in furniture in 2024, up 7% from the prior year, according to Furniture Today. Nearly 60% of that came from Vietnam and China. Both countries exported a combined $12 billion in furniture and fixtures last year, US Commerce Department data showed.
The president said tariffs would revive domestic industries. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union,” Trump wrote.
Furniture and wood product manufacturing, which employed 1.2 million Americans in 1979, has dropped to about 340,000 today, according to government statistics.
Shares of RH (RH.N), formerly Restoration Hardware, fell 7.5% in after-hours trading following Trump’s announcement.
Impact on retailers and prices
Industry analysts warn the tariffs could significantly affect global supply chains. Wood Central reported in April that only 10% of IKEA products sold in the United States are manufactured domestically, leaving the retailer vulnerable to tariffs on goods sourced from Europe and Asia.
“Absorbing a 10% tariff is one thing,” a supply chain analyst told Wood Central. “But factoring in a 20% to 40% tariff without passing on increased prices to consumers is challenging.”
Consumer prices are already showing increases. Data from the Consumer Price Index indicated furniture and bedding costs rose 0.4% in June and 0.9% in July, reversing two years of deflation.
Lumber market volatility
The probe coincides with sharp swings in lumber prices. Futures for September delivery fell 14.3% from early August highs, settling at $595.50 per thousand board feet, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Greg Kuta, CEO of Westline Capital Strategies, told MarketWatch that expectations tariffs would lift lumber demand were a “complete swing and a miss.” He added that oversupply and weak housing demand continue to weigh on prices.
Steve Loebner, vice president at Sherwood Lumber, said uncertainty over tariffs has fueled volatility. He noted that prices “got ahead of themselves with some overbuying on the way up, and a very large and unsustainable futures premium developed.”
Broader trade agenda
The furniture probe is the latest in a series of Trump administration national security investigations. The Commerce Department has recently targeted wind turbines, semiconductors, copper, and pharmaceuticals, alongside an ongoing review of Canadian lumber imports.
While Trump argues tariffs will restore US jobs, questions remain over whether domestic producers can meet demand. Henrik Elm, CFO of Inter IKEA, told Reuters last year that the retailer has worked to adapt supply chains.
“We have worked a lot on making our supply chain more responsive to different changes, including different trade barriers,” Elm said. “So I think we are better equipped than we have been ever before, but we are not immune to changes.”
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