New data shows Americans feel differently about what's ahead
Consumer confidence improved modestly in July, rising 2.0 points to 97.2 from June’s revised 95.2, according to The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence Index report released Tuesday.
The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ current assessment of business and labor market conditions, fell 1.5 points to 131.5. However, the Expectations Index, reflecting consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor conditions, rose 4.5 points to 74.4.
Despite the improvement, expectations remained below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month, the report noted.
Labor market concerns persist
“Consumer confidence has stabilized since May, rebounding from April’s plunge, but remains below last year’s heady levels,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board.
The labor market showed mixed signals. While 30.2% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up from 29.4% in June, the percentage saying jobs were “hard to get” increased to 18.9% from 17.2%.
Inflation and economic concerns
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from 5.9% in June and a peak of 7% in April. However, references to high prices and inflation rose in July survey responses.
Tariffs remained a top concern among consumers, who mostly associated them with higher prices. Some respondents mentioned recent budget reconciliation legislation, with mixed reactions about its potential economic impact.
Spending and investment plans
Stock market optimism continued recovering, with 47.9% expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, up from 37.6% three months ago. The share expecting interest rates to rise declined to 53% from 57.1% in June.
Purchasing plans for cars and homes declined in July, while consumers’ intentions to buy services weakened for a second month. Dining out remained the top spending intention in services, though it also saw one of the largest declines in spending intentions.
July’s confidence gain was driven by consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups except those earning below $15,000 annually. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Republican consumers while remaining stable for Democrats and Independents.
The survey was conducted online by Toluna with a cutoff date of July 20, 2025.
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