Are Aspen and Vail doomed?

Snow has long defined the value proposition in classic United States ski towns. Now the snow is shifting and the housing and mortgage markets in places like Aspen and Vail could be about to quietly shift with it.

Around the world, winter is becoming less reliable. A study used by the International Olympic Committee found that out of 93 mountain venues able to host elite winter sport, only 52 would remain “climate reliable” by the 2050s, potentially dropping to 30 by the 2080s without deep emissions cuts. That raised an obvious question for mortgage professionals: if winter faltered, would the ski market follow?

“Resorts that are unfavorably located face likely large negative effects on home prices due to warming, unless adaptive measures are able to compensate for the deterioration of conditions in the ski industry,” a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco working paper on North American ski resorts said.

Yet in Colorado’s marquee mountains, prices have not waited for perfect snow. A 2025 analysis by the Common Sense Institute found home prices in seven resort counties – including Eagle and Pitkin – more than doubled, and in some cases nearly tripled, since 2012, outpacing statewide gains.

In Aspen, separate reporting showed detached homes averaging around $18 million, with trophy properties trading north of $100 million, as global wealth chased scarce inventory.

Mortgage exposure in a fragile climate

Climate risk firm First Street projected climate and insurance repricing could erase about $1.47 trillion in US housing value by 2055 as high risk markets were marked down.

Insurance costs are rising dramatically faster than mortgage payments, warning that coverage could become a primary driver of devaluation. One ICE Mortgage Monitor analysis showed average property insurance payments on mortgaged US homes jumping more than 11% year over year in early 2025, pushing insurance to a record share of total housing costs.

In the luxury segment, lenders are watching deals collapse when buyers could not secure affordable coverage in wildfire zones – a warning that mountain communities near Boulder and Colorado Springs have seen premium spikes of up to 51%.

Aspen’s worker housing crisis as a credit signal

Aspen’s housing authority oversaw roughly 3,200 deed restricted units in Aspen and Pitkin County, the largest per capita workforce housing program in any North American resort. Yet local studies still found hundreds of additional affordable units were needed, with about 60% of the county’s workforce commuting from outside its borders.

Private employers stepped in. At one former campground near Aspen, resort operator Aspen Snowmass converted the site into a tiny home village housing roughly 115 to 120 workers each winter. “It is a scarce resource,” an executive said of housing, noting that more than 1,000 company beds still covered only about a quarter of the workforce.

For mortgage risk officers, those details matter as much as snow depth. If service workers are pushed into longer commutes or out of the valley entirely, visitor experience and brand value could erode, inviting stricter rules on short term rentals and transfer taxes and putting pressure on leveraged projects.

What ski town lenders should do next

Originators are urged to look beyond FICO scores and loan to value ratios. Darshit Chokshi, president and CEO of Aequitas Mortgage, described rising insurance and rebuild costs as quietly killing deals in high risk areas, arguing that models still “overinflated the cost estimates and thereby push[ed] the insurance premiums higher.”

Another reminded colleagues that buyers fixated on principal and interest often forgot that insurance and taxes can change, with double digit premium increases now common across multiple states.

In ski markets, that translates into several practical steps: underwriting rental cash flows against more volatile seasons, demanding stronger reserve studies and insurance detail from resort HOAs, and setting portfolio limits in any single town whose economy depends heavily on a 12 week peak.

So are Aspen and Vail doomed? In price terms, not yet. The ultra luxury segment still look relentless, and climate resilient, at least for now. But for mortgage professionals, the story has already moved on from “will the lifts turn” to whether these postcard towns could stay insured, staffed and politically stable enough to justify today’s valuations and tomorrow’s loans.

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