Record seller surplus reshaped bargaining power but locked‑out borrowers still watched from sidelines
There were nearly 630,000 more home sellers than buyers in February, the widest gap in Redfin records and a sign that negotiating power has shifted toward those still active in the market.
Redfin estimated there were 46.3% more sellers than buyers nationally, up from 29.8% a year earlier. By its definition, a buyer’s market is when there are more than 10% extra sellers. On that measure, the market has been a buyer’s market since May 2024.
The firm based its figures on active listings, pending sales and proprietary data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to closing, and noted that the estimates were seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
What a ‘buyer’s market’ meant for those who could buy
In practice, the shift reflected a demand crunch as much as a supply surge. The number of buyers in the market fell 2.4% month over month in February to about 1.36 million, while sellers slipped just 0.4% to roughly 1.99 million.
High prices, elevated mortgage rates, layoffs and political uncertainty continued to sideline many would‑be purchasers, including owners unable to give up ultra‑low pandemic‑era loans.
“We’re seeing a lot more inventory on the market compared to the past two years because the mortgage rate lock‑in effect is easing and there’s a lot of new construction,” said Justin Gomez, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Omaha, NE.
“This has been great for affordability, especially for the younger crowd. Our median home price is in the low $300,000 range. Two years ago, people were offering $15,000 over the asking price just to get a home, with multiple offers everywhere.”
Southern surplus, Northeastern squeeze
Redfin’s latest breakdown underscores that the buyer’s market label remains highly regional.
Miami led all buyer’s markets, with an estimated 163% more sellers than buyers, followed by other Sun Belt hubs including Nashville, Austin, West Palm Beach and San Antonio.
Heavy pandemic‑era construction and cooling in‑migration left many of these metros with abundant inventory and thinner demand.
By contrast, the firm identified just five seller’s markets, all clustered in the Northeast and upper Midwest: Newark, NJ; Montgomery County, PA; Nassau County, NY; Milwaukee; and New Brunswick, NJ.
In those areas, there were roughly 14% to 31% fewer sellers than buyers and prices rose about 2.2% year over year – compared with just 0.3% across the 37 buyer’s markets, according to Redfin.
Flat national price growth and a “two‑speed” market reached similar conclusions, finding that the Midwest and Northeast have proved more resilient while many Sun Belt metros contended with overhang from the pandemic boom.
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