Sun Belt markets led the shift as buyers gained rare negotiating leverage
There were far more homes than hunters on the market in December, capping a year in which negotiating power tilted toward the few buyers who remained active and away from would‑be sellers in much of the country.
Real estate giant Redfin estimated there were 47.1% more home sellers than buyers nationwide, or roughly 631,500 extra sellers. That's the widest gap since its records began in 2013 and enough to classify the US as a buyer’s market by the firm’s own threshold since May 2024.
A market with more than 10% extra sellers is considered a buyer’s market, while one with more than 10% fewer sellers is deemed a seller’s market.
Sun Belt imbalance moves from boom to overhang
The shift was sharpest in pandemic boomtowns. In Dallas, there were 30,171 sellers and 16,153 buyers in December, an 86.8% seller surplus. It saw its median sale price fall 7.6% year over year – the steepest drop of any large US market, even as national prices inched up just 0.1%.
“Some home sellers are underwater because Dallas does not have enough housing demand to meet supply, which hit a record high this year,” said local Redfin Premier real estate agent Connie Durnal.
“I have one seller who overpaid for his home at the peak of the pandemic market and is now taking a 10% loss. He’s being realistic about the fact that the market has shifted in buyers’ favor, but a lot of sellers are in denial and won’t budge on price. If you don’t price your home reasonably, it will sit on the market.”
Other Sun Belt metros posted even larger gaps. Austin had 17,259 sellers and 7,555 buyers, a 128.4% surplus. Fort Lauderdale had 19,356 sellers and 8,597 buyers (125.1%), Nashville 15,535 sellers and 7,351 buyers (111.3%), Miami 20,196 sellers and 9,964 buyers (102.7%), and San Antonio 17,846 sellers and 8,813 buyers (102.5%).
Northeast and Midwest pockets still favored sellers
By contrast, only five large metros remained seller’s markets. Nassau County, N.Y., had 10,977 buyers and 7,312 sellers in December, or 33.4% fewer sellers than buyers. Montgomery County, Pa., had 7,566 buyers and 5,121 sellers (32.3% fewer sellers), Newark, N.J., 8,415 buyers and 5,932 sellers (29.5% fewer), Milwaukee 6,480 buyers and 4,791 sellers (26.1% fewer), and New Brunswick, N.J., 11,112 buyers and 8,963 sellers (19.3% fewer).
For mortgage professionals, the shift comes against a backdrop of moderating but still-elevated borrowing costs. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to just above 6% in mid‑January, its lowest level in more than three years. That retreat followed a late‑2025 slide that pushed the 30‑year to about 6.15% by year‑end.
Demand, however, had not yet roared back. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s final weekly report of 2025 showed total applications down 5% from the prior week, showing how high prices and economic uncertainty continued to weigh on activity even as rates eased. Redfin’s own late‑2025 data showed buyers retreating to near‑record lows, with sellers also pulling listings in response.
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