Third-quarter data shows modest condo gains, but rising rates ended Florida’s single-family sales recovery
Florida’s housing market closed the third quarter on uncertain footing, with September data from Florida Realtors showing statewide single-family closings down 3.5% year-over-year, the second straight month of annual declines, as mortgage rates reversed gains built over the preceding 12 months.
Third-quarter single-family home sales totaled 65,904 statewide, a marginal 0.2% annual gain, according to the Florida Realtors Research Department, in partnership with local Realtor boards.
Condo-townhouse closings held up better, with 22,664 units sold across Q3, a 3.1% rise year-over-year.
Meanwhile, September condo-townhouse sales came in at 7,179 units, essentially unchanged, down just 0.1% from September 2025.
What’s driving the September sales decline?
Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor, based in Florida, identified rate volatility as the decisive factor in his Q3 2026 market assessment:
“The fluctuation in rates over the last two years has not been significant by historical standards but given that the home sales growth we experienced over the past 12 to 14 months was rather modest, the rise in interest rates that’s occurred so far this year has been enough to put a halt to this growth,” O’Connor said.
“So, we now find ourselves with a second straight month of declining year-over-year sales. It’s not a major shift in the sales trend by any stretch, but whenever you go from positive to negative growth, there is a potential psychological impact.”
That psychological pressure is something brokers across the country have been managing for months — fielding rate questions from buyers who are unsure whether to move now or wait for relief that may not be imminent.
Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, captured the mood in an interview with Mortgage Professional America.
“I think, unfortunately, it feels like a one-two punch for the housing market,” Hepp said.
“We had this very fleeting moment of relief in February, and then everything sort of changed from there.”
The reversal is sharp when viewed against the momentum of earlier this year. Brokers can trace the contrast clearly against Florida’s 10-month sales winning streak through June 2026, when buyers were still absorbing 6.5% mortgage rates.
Prices and supply hold steady
Florida’s statewide single-family median reached $415,000 in September, up 1.2% annually. Condo-townhouse units, meanwhile, posted a median of $293,500, down 1.8% from September 2025.
For Q3, single-family medians were $420,000 (up 2.4%) and condo-townhouse medians held flat at $295,000 year-over-year.
Months of supply — a measure of how long current inventory would last at the prevailing sales pace — sat at 4.4 for single-family homes and 7.7 for condos, with the latter continuing to give buyers negotiating room.
Chuck Bonfiglio, 2026 Florida Realtors President and broker-owner of AAA Realty Group in Plantation, Florida, pointed to faster market absorption as evidence of underlying stability.
“Third-quarter sales remained steady, prices showed modest changes, and homes generally moved through the market faster than they did a year ago,” he said.
“That’s a positive sign for buyers and sellers who are ready to make a move.”
O’Connor’s Q4 read was measured. “As we head into the final quarter of 2026, the story remains one of a housing market that has lost some momentum, but certainly hasn’t fallen apart,” he said.
“Higher mortgage rates are weighing on sales, particularly in the single-family market, but inventory and prices remain relatively stable, and the upper end of the market continues to perform quite well.”
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