Experts say buyers may finally have the upper hand
Florida’s once red-hot housing market is showing signs of a slowdown. According to Redfin data, the median home price in the state was $404,300 in July 2025, down 1.3% from the prior year. The number of homes sold fell 8.7% year over year, while inventory rose 7.5% to more than 217,000 listings. This shift suggests buyers now have more options, and sellers are under pressure to adjust pricing expectations.
Florida among nation’s coolest markets
Bankrate’s 2025 Housing Heat Index placed four Florida metros among the five “coldest” markets in the US, with Cape Coral-Fort Myers ranked at the bottom. The region, which saw explosive growth during the pandemic, is now experiencing longer listing times and fewer bidding wars. The North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton and Punta Gorda areas also landed near the bottom, despite being among the hottest markets just two years ago.
Business Insider reported that, during the pandemic, Northeasterners were fleeing for the Sun Belt, but that trend has slowed and even reversed. Jeff Ostrowski, a Bankrate housing market analyst, noted that in northern states with tight inventory, prices are still being bid up, while in Florida, buyers are waiting it out instead of buying.
Local price drops in key metros
Some Florida metros are already seeing sharper declines. A Redfin analysis showed West Palm Beach home prices down 4.9% year over year, while Jacksonville fell 3.1%. Both cities are among the 14 major US metros where prices dropped in July. Homes are also taking longer to sell. In West Palm Beach, listings that went under contract during late July took a median of 93 days—18 days longer than last year.
Pending sales in Florida have weakened further. Redfin reported a 13% decline in Tampa, a 12% decline in Orlando, and nearly 15% in Miami over the past year. New listings are also down in several metros, suggesting some homeowners prefer to stay put rather than compete in a slower market.
Gradual moderation ahead
Economists expect Florida’s cooling trend to continue into 2026. Forecasts from Zillow and Florida Realtors® point to potential price declines in 24 Florida markets by mid-2026, with Southwest Florida metros such as Punta Gorda, North Port, and Cape Coral projected to see the steepest adjustments.
Still, industry experts emphasize that this is not a crash, but a rebalancing after years of rapid appreciation. Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors®, said the market is “transitioning toward balance.” The statewide median price for single-family homes in June was $412,000, down 3.5% from last year, while condo prices dropped nearly 8%.
Buyers gain leverage
For buyers, this environment may present opportunities. With more homes on the market and less competition, sellers are increasingly willing to negotiate. “Sellers need to start coming to terms with two things: One, homes are more often going to sit on the market for longer than a week or two before they sell, and two, buyers are gaining the upper hand,” said James Gulden, a Redfin Premier agent.
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