Freddie Mac data shows four straight weekly increases as three FOMC members push for an immediate rate hike
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 6.66% for the week ending July 30, its highest point in a year, as a divided Federal Reserve signaled a tightening cycle may be approaching.
The reading marks a fourth consecutive weekly increase from 6.58% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). One year ago, the 30-year rate stood at 6.72%.
"The housing market continues to benefit from more available inventory, providing prospective homebuyers with additional options and helping support buyer activity as mortgage rates fluctuate," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also climbed, rising to 6.04% from 5.96% the prior week. A year ago, it averaged 5.85%, per Freddie Mac.
Thursday's PMMS data arrived a day after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, marking the Fed's fifth consecutive hold in 2026.
Three board members — Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan — dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point increase, the first time since 2016 that three FOMC members have voted against the majority call. Treasury yields moved sharply higher following the announcement.
Mike Fratantoni, SVP and chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), called the split vote a clear signal of what is ahead.
"The FOMC’s decision to hold the federal funds target at its current level, coupled with the three dissents at this meeting, with each of these dissenting members preferring to hike rates now, indicates that the Fed is likely moving into a hiking cycle soon," Fratantoni told Mortgage Professional America.
"Markets are now expecting they could start hiking before the end of the year."
CME FedWatch now prices in more than a 63% probability of a September rate increase. Deutsche Bank's economists expect a total of 50 basis points in hikes by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key driver of mortgage pricing, stood at 4.66% at midday Thursday, up from 3.97% in late February before the Iran conflict drove crude oil prices and inflation expectations higher.
What brokers are watching
Jay Lessard, president and senior loan officer at Sonoran Lending in Arizona, said buyers are adjusting their mindset rather than waiting on rates.
"Rather than trying to time the market perfectly, they're focusing on being ready when the opportunity presents itself," Lessard told MPA.
"I think there's a growing realization that if mortgage rates improve, competition for homes is likely to increase. Buyers who prepare now will be in a much stronger position than those who wait until rates have already fallen."
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