The imbalance was driven by high mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges
The United States housing market in October saw the widest gap between home sellers and buyers in more than a decade, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 36.8%. That's a record margin since at least 2013, according to new data from Redfin.
The imbalance, driven by high mortgage rates and persistent affordability challenges, has handed rare negotiating power to those still able to buy.
“Buyers have options—there are a lot of sellers who are desperate to make a deal happen,” Matt Purdy, a Redfin Premier agent in Denver, said.
“Sellers want top dollar because they’re focused on recouping their investment, but buyers are focused on having a low monthly payment, so there’s this gap in expectations that’s making it hard for buyers and sellers to see eye to eye. Oftentimes, the buyer ends up winning the negotiation.”
Purdy added that both first-time and repeat buyers have become scarce, with some sellers forced to list due to job relocations or divorce.
Market sees sharp drop in buyers and sellers
Redfin’s analysis estimated 1.97 million sellers and 1.44 million buyers in October, with the number of buyers falling 1.7% month over month. That's the lowest since the pandemic’s onset.
Sellers also retreated, down 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Redfin’s methodology combines proprietary buyer activity data with MLS listings and pending sales, but the estimates are subject to revision.
The buyer’s market, defined as having 10% more sellers than buyers, has persisted since May 2024.
The last time the market tilted this far in buyers’ favor was after the 2008 financial crisis, Redfin economists said. Still, the advantage is limited to those who can afford to buy, as affordability remains a significant barrier.
Regional divides deepen
Texas and Florida led the nation’s buyer’s markets, with San Antonio showing a 117% surplus of sellers over buyers, followed by Austin (115%), Miami (108%), and Fort Lauderdale (107%).
The Sun Belt’s pandemic-era boom spurred homebuilding, swelling inventory. Florida’s market has also been pressured by rising insurance premiums and HOA fees, pushing some owners to exit.
In contrast, Nassau County, NY, posted the strongest seller’s market, with 37.4% fewer sellers than buyers.
Other seller-leaning regions included Newark, NJ, and Montgomery County, PA. San Francisco, after months as a buyer’s market, shifted to balanced territory, with buyers and sellers nearly even.
Home prices and leverage
Home prices reflected these dynamics: seller’s markets saw a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while buyer’s markets posted just a 1.5% rise.
New construction continues to shape local supply-demand balances, with the South and West issuing more permits than the Northeast and Midwest.
While buyers now hold more cards than at any time in recent memory, only those with the means to navigate high rates and prices can truly benefit. For most, the market remains a waiting game.
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