One in seven home-purchase contracts fell through in September, according to new Redfin analysis
The chill in the United States housing market deepened in September, with 15% of home-purchase agreements nationwide falling through—leaving more than 53,000 sellers suddenly without buyers, according to new Redfin analysis. That’s a jump from 13.6% a year earlier and marks the highest cancellation rate in a year.
Redfin’s data, which tracks pending sales across the 50 largest US metros, showed the phenomenon was especially acute in Florida and Texas. Tampa led the nation with a 20.1% cancellation rate, up from 17.7% last year.
San Antonio, Atlanta, Orlando, and Fort Worth all saw nearly one in five deals collapse before closing.
Buyer remorse and economic jitters drive cancellations
“Buyers make an offer, then they start worrying they could have found a better deal or a better home because there are more home sellers than buyers in the market. Some other buyers are backing out because they’re concerned about job security,” said Jo Chavez, a Redfin Premier agent in Kansas City, MO.
High mortgage rates, record home prices, and a growing mismatch in expectations drive the trend.
Many sellers, especially those who bought during the pandemic boom, are holding firm on price, unwilling to negotiate or offer concessions.
“I still think we’re seeing some sellers not willing to accept the reality check that their realtors are giving them. This isn’t ’21. This isn’t ’22. You can’t just throw your house on the market and say, ‘Take it or leave it,’” Charlotte-based loan originator Rebecca Richardson told Mortgage Professional America last month.
Homefront Lending LLC’s Ross Sykes says fear often holds first-time buyers back, but transparency and connection can change that. He stresses guiding clients through every step and offering a clear path from “not yet” to “ready.”https://t.co/vEqmmXGzAv
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) October 9, 2025
Uncertainty clouds the mortgage landscape
Buyers, meanwhile, are demanding more repairs and price reductions, emboldened by a market that increasingly favors them. Most deals that fall apart do so during the inspection period, with more than 70% of failed contracts breaking down at this stage.
“I'm just telling people to lock because it's so uncertain, and nothing is like it should be,” Kristi Hardy, executive vice president, area manager, and senior loan officer with Atlantic Coast Mortgage, said.
“And we've had this ever since COVID. Everything that we knew in the past that affected mortgage rates is not affecting mortgage rates. It’s like nothing we've ever seen as mortgage lenders. We have not seen such a lack of response to indicators that usually cause a huge effect. So everything is just sort of flipped and unknown.”
The Sun Belt, once a magnet for pandemic-era migration, is now seeing buyers retreat as affordability erodes and climate risks, HOA fees, and insurance premiums rise.
Coastal metros see fewer walkaways
By contrast, buyers in the Bay Area and other high-priced coastal metros were least likely to walk away, with San Francisco, Nassau County (NY), and San Jose all recording cancellation rates under 7%. Limited inventory in these markets means buyers have fewer alternatives, making them more likely to stick with their deals.
This uptick in cancellations is both a symptom and a cause of today’s sluggish housing market. As more deals fall through, some would-be sellers are holding off on listing their homes, further constraining supply.
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