Contract cancellations edged lower last month as sellers concede ground and confidence ticks up among mortgage borrowers
Just over 47,000 home-sale agreements in the US fell through in April 2026, equal to 13.4% of homes that went under contract that month. That's down marginally from the prior month and tied with January for the lowest cancellation rate since September 2024, according to new data from Redfin.
The figure, drawn from seasonally adjusted MLS pending-sales data, points to a housing market that is no longer deteriorating, even if conditions remain far removed from the seller-dominated cycle of 2021 and early 2022.
The modest stabilization reflects a gradual recalibration of expectations on both sides of the transaction.
More sellers have come to terms with the reality of a buyer's market across most of the country, and they're increasingly willing to lower prices or offer concessions to keep deals together.
At the same time, pending home sales have risen, and buyers appear to be less likely to back out from sticker shock once they receive their final monthly payment figures.
For mortgage professionals on the front lines, the picture reflects what Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage in New York, told Mortgage Professional America earlier this year: "I feel that 2026 has gotten off to a better start than we've seen, and the pace is better than what we've seen in the past few months."
Cohn noted that rate stability, more than outright declines, has been critical to shifting buyer psychology.
"I think if rates remain stable, then hopefully we'll see some improvement because a lot of people put off making a move last year," she said.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell for three consecutive weeks in April, giving some buyers confidence in locking in a rate, though rates rebounded in May.
On the ground in tighter markets, brokers are seeing committed buyers rather than hesitant ones.
Timothy Hourigan, a Redfin Premier agent in Syracuse, NY, said cancellations are running at normal levels.
"When buyers do back out it's typically because of post-inspection repair costs and appraisals," Hourigan said.
"Buyers are generally committed because supply is tight enough that they're excited to find a home they love in their price range. In places like Syracuse, where homes are affordable compared to nearby big cities, bidding wars are more common than backing out."
Read more: US buyers walk away from deals with cancellations at multi‑year high
Sun Belt markets lead cancellation rates
Atlanta recorded the highest cancellation share among the 50 most populous US metros in April, with 19.3% of purchase agreements falling through.
Four other Sun Belt metros followed: San Antonio at 18.9%, Fort Worth, TX at 17.6%, Tampa, FL at 17.4%, and Phoenix at 17%.
The concentration of deal failures across Texas and Florida is not coincidental.
In Atlanta, for example, there are nearly 70% more home sellers than buyers, giving buyers the upper hand and allowing them to walk away during the inspection period confident that alternatives exist. That dynamic echoes a broader structural divergence that has been building since 2024.
Miami led all buyer's markets at one point this year, with an estimated 163% more sellers than buyers, followed by other Sun Belt hubs including Nashville, Austin, West Palm Beach, and San Antonio.
Heavy pandemic-era construction and cooling in-migration left many of these metros with abundant inventory and thinner demand.
Florida home prices fell 2.36% year over year in January 2026, while Texas slipped 1.09%, contrasting sharply with Midwest and Northeast gains above 4%, according to Cotality's Home Price Index.
On the other hand, San Francisco recorded just 2.8% of deals falling through in April — the lowest rate among major metros.
The Bay Area's housing market has been buoyed by its position as the epicenter of the AI industry. Nassau County, NY came in at 3.3%, followed by San Jose, CA at 6.8%, Montgomery County, PA at 7.5%, and New York at 7.5%.
Orlando leads the recovery; Detroit falls back
Cancellations declined month over month in roughly half of the 50 most populous US metros.
Orlando posted the largest improvement, dropping from 18.5% in March to 16.8% in April. New Brunswick, NJ followed, falling to 8.8% from 10.3%, while San Francisco dropped from 4.3% to 2.8%.
Not all markets moved in the right direction. Detroit recorded the sharpest rise in cancellations, climbing 2.8 percentage points to 16.9%. Nashville increased from 12.6% to 14.2%, and Houston moved from 14.8% to 15.9%.
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