Redfin data shows 14% of July contracts fell through as buyers flex new leverage
Fourteen percent of US home-purchase agreements that went under contract in July fell through, the highest share on a seasonally adjusted basis since November 2023.
A record-low pool of active buyers and near-historic seller oversupply continued to hand house hunters the upper hand in negotiations, according to new data from Redfin, the real estate brokerage owned by Rocket.
The July figure edged up from 13.7% in June and caps a four-year stretch in which the cancellation rate has fluctuated in a narrow band between roughly 13% and 14%.
While the incremental moves are small, the sustained elevation above pandemic-era lows tells a more consequential story. The conditions that kept deals together during the 2020–2022 seller's market — scarce inventory, competing offers, waived contingencies — have largely reversed.
The arithmetic is stark. The number of active US homebuyers dropped to a record low in July, while sellers outnumbered buyers by approximately 51% nationwide.
With that kind of supply imbalance, buyers have both the inventory and the patience to walk away.
Elevated mortgage rates and persistently high home prices have compounded the pressure, leaving many purchase-ready clients with little financial margin for surprises.
Southern metros absorb the steepest losses
Contract cancellations are most concentrated in Sun Belt markets where pandemic-driven migration has since reversed, overbuilding has swelled inventory, and rising insurance costs tied to natural disaster exposure have further dampened demand.
Atlanta recorded the highest cancellation rate among the 50 most populous US metros with sufficient data at 19.8% in July.
Houston followed at 19.6%, ahead of San Antonio (18.7%), Las Vegas (18.6%), and Orlando (18.2%).
Houston's imbalance is particularly pronounced: the metro currently has 130% more sellers than buyers, one of the widest gaps in the country.
Juan Castro, a Redfin Premier agent in Orlando, described the on-the-ground dynamic: "Sometimes buyers get cold feet before the inspection — they revisit the numbers with their lender, get anxious about the payment and never even send the deposit. Other times, they'll find something relatively minor in the inspection and use it as leverage to ask for major concessions or walk away entirely. Buyers know they have options right now, so they're pushing harder in negotiations. That can be tough for sellers, but it's good news for buyers."
Contract cancellation rates by metro — July 2026
Top 5 highest and lowest among 50 most populous US metros with sufficient data.
Source: Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data, July 2026 report
Tight markets offer a counterpoint
Not every metro is yielding. Nassau County, New York, recorded the lowest cancellation rate among major markets at just 3.5% in July, followed by San Francisco at 4.1% and San Jose at 6.5%.
San Francisco's relative resilience has been supported in part by technology-sector compensation, which has kept buyer confidence firm even as broader affordability conditions have tightened.
Nassau County, Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, and Milwaukee each qualify as seller's markets — among just six remaining in the US — where tighter inventory keeps buyers committed to holding deals together.
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