Nearly 80% of major US metros are now buyer's markets, with negotiating power tilting
The US housing market registered a historic milestone in July. The estimated number of active homebuyers fell to its lowest level on record, even as the seller count remained near multi-year highs, according to new data from Redfin, the technology-driven real estate brokerage now part of Rocket Companies.
Redfin estimated approximately 966,752 buyers were in the market in July, down 2.5% from June, against around 1,462,921 sellers, a gap of nearly half a million.
Sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3%, just shy of December's peak of 51.8% and up from 47.9% the month before.
More than three-quarters of the 49 major metros Redfin analyzed, 39 in total, now qualify as buyer's markets.
The seller surplus jumped from June to July not because supply surged, but because buyer demand fell away sharply.
Mortgage rates climbing to their highest level in a year strained affordability at a time of already-elevated home prices, and widespread economic and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on house hunters.
"Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power," said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin.
"That makes the stretch between now and Labor Day a potential sweet spot for people who need to move: buyers have leverage, while motivated sellers may be willing to negotiate before the early-fall rush brings some buyers back to the market."
That dynamic has been building throughout 2026. As detailed in Redfin's May buyer-seller data, sellers already hit a six-year high in spring even as demand stalled, a supply story that has since evolved into a demand problem, with buyers unable or unwilling to absorb today's prices.
US housing market snapshot — July 2026
| # | Metro | Est. buyers | Est. sellers | Seller surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami, FL | 7,258 | 18,437 | +154% |
| 2 | Nashville, TN | 7,205 | 18,066 | +151% |
| 3 | Houston, TX | 19,862 | 45,641 | +130% |
| 4 | San Antonio, TX | 8,874 | 19,194 | +116% |
| 5 | Austin, TX | 8,416 | 17,832 | +112% |
| # | Metro | Est. buyers | Est. sellers | Buyer surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassau County, NY | 11,958 | 7,631 | +36% |
| 2 | Newark, NJ | 7,741 | 6,139 | +21% |
| 3 | Providence, RI | 5,418 | 4,512 | +17% |
| 4 | Milwaukee, WI | 6,390 | 5,427 | +15% |
| 5 | New Brunswick, NJ | 10,876 | 9,477 | +13% |
How to read this: Buyer’s market = more than 10% more sellers than buyers. Seller’s market = more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers. Buyer surplus (seller’s market table) shows how much buyers outnumber sellers. All estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
Source: Redfin Buyers vs. Sellers Report, August 13, 2026. Metro-level estimates based on Redfin proprietary data and MLS active listings.
Sun Belt cities dominate the buyer's market rankings
Miami was the nation's strongest buyer's market in July, with an estimated 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville, Tennessee (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin, Texas (112%). These markets combine the national affordability squeeze with local dynamics.
Miami's rising insurance costs, escalating homeowners' association fees and climate-related risk have stacked onto already-high prices.
Houston, San Antonio and Austin carry some of the most active homebuilding pipelines in the country, inventory keeps landing in a market where buyer demand continues to cool.
In Nashville, local Redfin agent Kristin Sanchez described a market transformed from the frenzied bidding wars of recent years. Buyers now have time to evaluate options and sellers are willing to negotiate.
That's a reversal that stands in contrast to conditions just a few years ago, when multiple competing offers were the norm and homes closed within days.
Northeast and Midwest hold firm as seller's markets
Just six major metros remained seller's markets in July, all concentrated in the Northeast or Midwest.
Nassau County, New York, led with 36% fewer sellers than buyers, followed by Newark, New Jersey (-21%), Providence, Rhode Island (-17%), Milwaukee (-15%), New Brunswick, New Jersey (-13%) and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (-13%).
Home-sale prices rose an average of 4.2% year over year across the six seller's markets in July, compared with a 2.3% gain across buyer's markets, reflecting ongoing buyer competition in supply-constrained areas where new construction has been limited for years.
For mortgage brokers, the widening national seller surplus points to a purchase market where clients in most metros have genuine room to negotiate on both price and timeline.
NAR's own forecast for a second-half sales recovery depends in part on that negotiating window drawing sidelined demand back into the market.
Separately, Realtor.com's revised 2026 price outlook — which cut home price growth to 1.2%, below the expected inflation rate of 3.4% — suggests that in real terms, conditions are quietly shifting in buyers' favor across most of the country, even if the nominal headlines have not yet captured that.
Whether the Federal Reserve's rate path delivers meaningful affordability relief before year-end will determine how many of those sidelined buyers return this fall.
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