Rising tenure kept inventory tight even as rates eased and prices softened in some markets
The typical US homeowner now stays in their home for 12 years, up from 11.8 years a year earlier and close to the longest stretch on record, according to a new Redfin analysis of county sales records through December 1, 2025.
That longer stay, while short of the 2020 peak of 13.4 years, reinforces a years‑long pattern of households aging in place and throttling the supply of homes available to first‑time buyers.
The real estate giant reported that homeowners in 2005 typically sold after 6.5 years, meaning tenure nearly doubled over two decades as the population grew older and millions of owners locked in cheap mortgage debt during the pandemic.
Baby boomers and Gen Xers are especially likely to remain where they are, helped by paid‑off mortgages or monthly payments far below what a new buyer would have faced at current prices and rates.
“High mortgage rates and home prices perpetuate a cycle that locks up housing inventory,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research.
“It can keep existing homeowners in place and financially discourage them from moving to a different home or a different neighborhood, which drives prices up even higher for first‑timers trying to break into the market. But there is good news: Homebuying affordability has improved as mortgage rates have come down, dropping below 6% for the first time in over three years last week. And home‑price growth has lost steam, and we expect it to improve more. That should push more Americans to move.”
California metros underscore extreme tenure gap
Tenure is longest in California, where Proposition 13’s property‑tax limits continue to reward staying put.
In Los Angeles, the median homeowner held a property for 20 years in 2025, up from 19.4 years in 2024 and the longest span among major metros.
Owners in San Jose (18.7 years), San Francisco (16.5 years), San Diego (14.5 years) and Riverside (12.4 years) also stayed well above the national median.
By contrast, turnover remained quickest in more affordable or more transient markets. Louisville posted the shortest tenure at 8.3 years, followed by Las Vegas (8.8 years), Charlotte and Orlando (9.2 years) and Raleigh (9.3 years).
Lock‑in sharpens affordability strains
Economists increasingly tie those patterns to a pronounced mortgage rate lock‑in effect. A 2024 Federal Housing Finance Agency working paper estimated that every percentage point gap between a borrower’s existing rate and prevailing market rates reduced the probability of sale by 18.1%, contributing to an estimated 1.33 million “missing” home sales between mid‑2022 and late 2023.
Freddie Mac research similarly found that nearly six in ten borrowers held mortgage rates at or below 4%, making many owners reluctant to give up cheap debt.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recently pointed to that dynamic. “Many people have very low‑rate mortgages from the pandemic period. It’s expensive for them to move, and we’re a ways away from that changing,” Powell said.
First‑time buyers bear the brunt
For new buyers, those forces add to already strained budgets. Redfin estimated that empty‑nest baby boomers owned 28% of three‑bedroom‑plus homes, roughly double the share held by millennials with children. That concentration reflected how long tenure and aging in place keep many family‑sized homes in the hands of older owners.
Survey‑based data tracked by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed first‑time buyers’ share of transactions falling to roughly one‑fifth of the market in 2025, a record low, as typical sellers’ time in home climbed to 11 years.
Meanwhile, Bankrate’s Stephen Kates said the “punishing combination of high home prices, low supply and high mortgage rates” left roughly one in six recent shoppers abandoning their home search altogether.
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