Mortgage applications slide amid stormy economic outlook

Activity eased despite a slight dip in key interest rates, according to the latest MBA data

Mortgage applications slide amid stormy economic outlook

Mortgage applications across the US declined in the week ending October 10, 2025 as the pace of both home purchases and refinancing slowed, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported.

That drop arrived as uncertainty continues to linger about the future of the US economy amid an ongoing government shutdown in Washington and new tariff threats from the Trump administration.

The MBA’s Market Composite Index, which tracks overall mortgage loan application volume, dropped 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, the index fell 2%.

Refinance activity edged down 1% week-over-week, though it remained 59% higher than the same period last year.

Purchase applications decreased for the third consecutive week, slipping 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2% unadjusted.

Still, purchase demand stood 20% above last year’s level, reflecting ongoing buyer interest amid improving inventory in some markets. 

The average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) inched down to 6.42%, with points rising slightly.

Jumbo loan rates also eased, dropping to 6.47%, while rates for FHA-backed loans held steady at 6.19%. The 15-year fixed rate remained unchanged at 5.77 percent, and the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rate rose to 5.63 percent.

Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, noted that “mortgage rate movements were mixed last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing slightly to 6.42 percent. Mortgage applications were lower than the week before, as conventional and VA applications saw declines.”

He added that FHA applications, particularly FHA refinances, posted a 12% increase as FHA rates stayed more than 10 basis points below conventional fixed rates.

The share of refinancing activity edged up to 53.6% of total applications, while the share of ARMs slipped to 9.3%. 

FHA applications made up a larger portion of the total, rising to 20.5%, while VA applications fell to 14.9%. The USDA share held steady at 0.4%.

The latest data suggested that while higher rates continued to temper overall mortgage demand, the market remained more active than a year ago, especially for homebuyers.

The uptick in FHA activity indicated that some borrowers were seeking more affordable financing options as conventional rates stayed elevated.

For mortgage brokers, the changing types of applications highlighted the need to offer different loan options for borrowers.

Slightly lower rates on some loans may have opened up chances for buyers and those looking to refinance, but ongoing rate changes and affordability issues likely continued to limit how many people applied.

The MBA’s weekly survey, which has tracked US residential mortgage applications since 1990, draws on responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks, thrifts, and credit unions across the country.

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