New survey says one of the biggest features of the recent market is slowly fading
Coldwell Banker Real Estate’s latest spring survey suggested that one of the market’s most stubborn frictions – the mortgage rate lock‑in – has started to loosen as more owners accepted giving up ultra‑cheap loans to move.
The firm’s 2026 Home Shopping Season Report, based on responses from 727 of its affiliated agents, was conducted online between March 23 and April 6, 2026. It highlights a busier but still cautious market, with 43% of agents reporting a more active spring than a year earlier.
“We are seeing activity on both sides of the housing market this spring, but it is measured,” Jason Waugh, president of Coldwell Banker Affiliates, said.
“Buyers are prepared to move forward, yet they are focused on homes that meet long term financial and practical needs, and they are taking the time to evaluate their options.”
A recent BMO Real Financial Progress Index revealed that instead of starting small, respondents aimed straight for a “forever home” and stayed on the sidelines until both prices and rates aligned with their long‑term plans.
Waugh said many sellers are moving because life events outweighed the benefit of a rock‑bottom mortgage.
“On the seller side, many homeowners are listing because their circumstances require a change, even if it means giving up a historically low mortgage rate,” he said.
“With clear motivations on both sides, there is opportunity in the market, but the pace is more controlled than the period immediately following the pandemic.”
Lock‑in loosens, but not evenly
Coldwell Banker reported that 35% of its current sellers have mortgage rates below 5% yet still plan to list this spring, and that 39% of agents viewed lock‑in as only a minor factor in listing decisions.
The firm also found that 36% of agents said sellers are driven by personal circumstances rather than rate timing, showing that job changes, family shifts and aging continue to force moves despite higher borrowing costs.
Regionally, Coldwell Banker’s agents depict a country split between seller‑friendly Midwest and Northeast markets and buyer‑leaning conditions in much of the South and West.
Around 70% of Midwestern agents and 74% in the Northeast describe their markets as seller’s territory, compared with just 13% in the South and 22% in the West. Nationally, only a quarter of agents describ conditions as balanced.
Buyers return and stop waiting on a ‘magical’ rate drop
On the demand side, Coldwell Banker’s network reported a wave of “comeback buyers” who paused searches over the past two years and re‑entered this spring.
The firm said about 20% of its current buyers fit that profile, with three‑quarters returning on roughly the same budget and nearly a quarter stretching higher – particularly in the Midwest, where relative affordability has drawn more move‑up and relocation demand.
The survey found 80% of agents working with buyers who are actively shopping rather than waiting for lower rates.
Amir Nurani, broker-owner at Left Coast Leaders, told Mortgage Professional America, “There’s not going to be this magical moment where rates are just going to fall,” arguing that today’s high‑5s to low‑6s range look closer to a new normal than an aberration.
“Unfortunately, you saw this in 2024, we heard, ‘Hey, rates are going to drop in 2024.’ Then you saw the rhetoric again at the end of 2024 and at the end of 2025. You heard the same thing. I think that's a lot of wishful thinking.”
Climate risk and insurance costs creep into the deal
Coldwell Banker’s agents also flagged rising climate‑related concerns, with 31% saying issues such as wildfire, flood exposure and insurance costs weigh more heavily on buyers than a year earlier. That share climbed to 35% in the South and 39% in the West.
Only 27% of Coldwell Banker respondents said climate risks rarely influence buyer behavior, suggesting that environmental exposure has become another structural filter on demand alongside rates and affordability.
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