Mortgage market surprises as fall activity outpaces expectations: Zillow

Buyers and sellers defied seasonal trends as activity rebounded in September

Mortgage market surprises as fall activity outpaces expectations: Zillow

The United States housing market defied expectations this September, as a dip in mortgage rates and a buoyant stock market spurred both buyers and sellers into action, extending momentum into what is typically a quieter season.

According to Zillow’s latest market report, the number of buyers’ markets more than doubled over the past year, with new listings and inventory levels rebounding after a sluggish August.

“September’s market showed surprising stamina,” said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow.

“Typically, both buyers and sellers step back this time of year, but lower mortgage rates and stock market highs provided a second wind heading into fall. This time of year can be a sweet spot for buyers. There’s often less competition than in the spring and more time to make sure the home’s a perfect fit. Sellers who stay in the market into the holidays may be more open to negotiating.”

New listings, which had declined 3% year over year in August, reversed course to post a 3% annual increase in September. Historically, new listings drop sharply in the fall, averaging a 9% decline in September over the past seven years. It makes this year’s modest 2% dip stand out.

“More homeowners decided to list their properties in September after a particularly slow August,” Ng said.

Buyers also remained active, with pending sales falling just 5.4% from August to September—less than half the typical monthly decline for this period. Total inventory slipped 1% month over month but remains up 14% compared to last year, giving buyers more options in a market that has often been defined by scarcity.

Buyers’ markets more than doubled, rising from six to 15 of the nation’s 50 largest metros. Cities like Miami, New Orleans, Austin, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis led the pack, buoyed by a surge in new construction.

Meanwhile, the hottest seller’s markets were concentrated in the Northeast and Bay Area, where land use restrictions have kept supply tight.

For buyers, fall may offer a window of opportunity. “There’s often less competition than in the spring and more time to make sure the home’s a perfect fit,” Ng said.

Sellers, on the other hand, should be prepared for negotiations on price, closing costs, and mortgage rate buydowns as the season progresses.

In competitive purchase markets, being able to move quickly often matters more than rate. That speed is most effective when paired with localized knowledge. 

“Essentially, just having pre-approvals ready to roll. Having direct access to me after hours, being able to produce the letter immediately,” Jeff Muth, broker-in-charge at Mecklenburg Mortgage in Charlotte, North Carolina, told Mortgage Professional America. 

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