First rise in six months adds to rate and pricing pressures
The cost of carrying a new mortgage in the United States ticked up again as bond markets reacted to the Iran war and higher oil prices, nudging some would-be buyers back to the sidelines while tempting more owners to list.
Redfin data for the four weeks ending March 29 showed the median monthly mortgage payment at $2,742. That's up 0.3% year over year and marking the first increase since October 2025.
The reported weekly average 30-year rate hit 6.38%, with daily rates touching 6.64%, while the median sale price rose 2.1% to $391,475 – the largest annual gain in a year. Those figures remain below 2025 peaks but add pressure just as the crucial spring selling season begins.
Rates climbed as oil surged
Redfin attributed the move largely to the Iran war and rising oil prices, which pushed up Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
Other market trackers reported a similar pattern. Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association pointed to conflict‑driven energy inflation as a key reason borrowing costs stayed elevated. This held true even as broader economic data softened.
Industry commentators warned that expectations for near-term rate cuts fade as long as oil stays high and volatility persists.
Mortgage rates jumped back above 6.4% as the Iran war pushed bond yields higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Oxford Economics’ John Canavan says markets still view inflation risks as largely short‑term despite the shock.https://t.co/yLvV4RAFS3
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) March 26, 2026
Buyers paused, sellers returned
High costs and uncertainty appeared to weigh on demand. Pending home sales fell 1.2% year over year, mortgage-purchase applications slipped 3% week over week, and the typical home spent 53 days on market, five days longer than a year earlier, according to Redfin.
New listings, by contrast, edged up 1.7%, leaving roughly 630,000 more sellers than buyers – the widest gap in Redfin records back to 2013. That imbalance put a premium on execution for sellers and their agents.
“My advice for sellers is to remember you’re selling the dream of homeownership,” said Hazel Shakur, a Redfin Premier agent in the Washington, D.C. area.
“When house hunters walk through the door, it should look good, smell good and give the impression that every room is orderly. Buyers should be able to visualize what life is going to be like living in the home. And it goes beyond cosmetics: Some buyers are walking away during the inspection period if they uncover an issue, so sellers should make sure they have taken care of basic maintenance and repairs before listing.”
A war-driven repricing, not a collapse
Market veterans interviewed recently by Mortgage Professional America framed the rate move as a geopolitical repricing rather than a repeat of 2022’s sudden shock.
“As far as its impact on the market, what people don’t realize is war is inflationary,” broker Shadi Nurani told Mortgage Professional America.
“You have spikes in oil prices… the likelihood of the Fed needing to print money goes through the roof.”
Federal Reserve officials, facing another energy‑driven inflation shock, sounded more hawkish.
“I could see circumstances where we would need to raise rates if it was going a different way, and inflation was getting out of control,” said Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development raised its 2026 US inflation forecast to around 4.2%, well above both its prior projection and the Fed’s 2.7% estimate, fanning talk of a possible stagflationary mix of weaker growth and sticky prices.
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