Slight rate uptick kept borrowing costs near this year’s floor
Average long‑term United States mortgage rates ticked higher this week but stayed close to 2025 lows, offering some relief to borrowers even as the Federal Reserve signaled it would move carefully on future rate cuts.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30‑year fixed mortgage at 6.22% for the week ending December 11. That's up from 6.19% a week earlier and down from 6.60% a year ago.
The 15‑year fixed averaged 5.54%, compared with 5.44% last week and 5.84% a year earlier.
“The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is well below the year-to-date average of 6.62%, providing some sense of balance to the housing market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
Short-term calm, longer-term questions
Borrowing costs for 30‑year loans have mostly bounced between 6% and 6.5% since September, even before the Fed’s latest rate cut, according to market data.
Mortgage lenders continue to take their cue from the 10‑year Treasury yield, which stood near 4.1% in recent trading, only slightly above last week’s level.
While the Fed lowered its policy rate on Wednesday, officials indicated they expected only one additional cut in 2026, a stance that could limit how far long‑term yields fall from here.
As for the housing market, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said in his opening statement, "Activity in the housing sector remains weak."
“The housing market faces some really significant challenges. I don’t know if a 25-basis-point decline in the federal funds rate is going to make much of a difference for people. Housing supply is low. Many people have very low-rate mortgages from the pandemic period. It’s expensive for them to move, and we’re a ways away from that changing,” he said.
Affordability outlook into 2026
Despite the Fed’s caution, some economists still point to a slow grind toward better affordability as incomes rise and price growth cools.
Realtor.com’s 2026 housing forecast projects average 30‑year mortgage rates around 6.3% next year, roughly in line with current levels, as slowing growth and the end of quantitative tightening offset other pressures.
The forecast added: "We expect mortgage rates to remain roughly in this range throughout 2026 as slowing economic growth and the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening offset rising U.S. government debt and inflationary pressure that's expected to be temporary."
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
