Geopolitical fears pushed US mortgage rates back above 6%
Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in more than a month this week as the Iran war rattled bond markets and revived inflation worries, tightening conditions just as the spring selling season got underway.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average rate on a 30‑year fixed mortgage rose to 6.11% for the week ending March 12, up from 6% a week earlier and 5.98% at the start of the month.
A year ago, the 30‑year average stood at 6.65%. The 15‑year fixed rate increased to 5.50% from 5.43%.
“Despite the modest uptick, buyers are responding to rates in this range, with existing‑home sales increasing 1.7% in February. Purchase applications also increased this week, a welcome sign as buyers enter spring homebuying season with rates down more than half a percentage point compared to the same time last year,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 1.7% month‑over‑month rise in existing home sales to an annual pace of 4.09 million, beating many economists’ expectations.
Applications for home loans, meanwhile, increased 3.2% in the week ending March 6, 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Purchase activity rose more sharply than refinances.
Markets continue to grapple with the economic fallout from the Iran war, which has driven oil above $100 a barrel and pushed the 10‑year Treasury yield back over 4.2%, reversing part of the bond rally that pulled mortgage rates under 6% just two weeks ago.
Analysts warned that higher energy prices and renewed inflation fears could delay long‑expected Federal Reserve rate cuts; futures markets now priced in no move until at least September.
On the secondary‑market side, the jump in Treasury yields and mortgage‑backed securities spreads translated into swift pricing changes. “The result was a round of lender reprices for the worse that felt larger than usual, not because of a single headline, but because several market mechanics moved against mortgage pricing at the same time,” veteran analyst Rob Chrisman said in a note to clients.
Geopolitics have now pushed that relationship back to the forefront. A recent Redfin‑commissioned polling found that the Iran war unsettled a minority of would‑be buyers, but concluded that “the more immediate channel from the Iran war remains interest rates,” with 10‑year yields climbing as markets priced in higher inflation and risk premia.
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