Fresh rate spike tested already cautious borrowers and lenders this week
Average United States mortgage rates climbed again this week, pushing the key 30‑year fixed rate to 6.38% and reviving fears that geopolitics and inflation could yet derail the fragile housing recovery.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30‑year fixed mortgage averaged 6.38% as of March 26, 2026. That's up from 6.22% a week earlier and 6.65% a year ago.
The 15‑year fixed rate also moved higher to 5.75%, from 5.54% the prior week and 5.89% a year earlier.
Mortgage industry executives noted that is the highest 30‑year average since early September, when rates last peaked above 6.5%.
“The housing market continues to show gradual improvements compared to a year ago amid recent rate volatility. Purchase and refinance applications are up year‑over‑year, and rates remain lower than last year when they averaged 6.65%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
Borrowers hit by another rate shock
The latest move came as investors reacted to the ongoing conflict with Iran and its impact on oil prices and inflation expectations, lifting the 10‑year Treasury yield to around 4.38% and dragging mortgage rates higher.
“Given this period of increasing mortgage rates and diminishing refinance incentives, refinance applications decreased 15% as applications across all loan types declined,” Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said.
The MBA also reported that overall applications fell 10.5% from the prior week, underscoring how quickly rate spikes still sidelined borrowers.
War, Fed path and buyer psychology
The war with Iran unsettled bond markets and complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields and funding costs higher for lenders.
Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, said that the concern for the mortgage market comes in long-term inflationary impacts rather than one-time spikes.
“For the mortgage market, the bigger issue is not the initial oil spike, but whether higher energy prices become embedded in the broader inflation outlook,” Williamson told Mortgage Professional America.
“If the move proves temporary, mortgage rates are unlikely to react much beyond some near-term volatility.”
If energy prices stay higher for longer, Williamson said that’s when you could see more drastic impacts on Treasury rates, which could then cause a rise in mortgage rates.
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