Redfin data showed cheaper payments but little urgency as fresh conflicts rattled sentiment
US borrowers briefly saw something they have not seen in three and a half years: a weekly average 30‑year mortgage rate starting with a five.
The typical rate dipped to 5.98% in late February, down from 6.76% a year earlier. That pushed the median monthly housing payment to $2,591 for the four weeks ending March 1 – a 2.8% year‑over‑year decline, according to Redfin’s latest housing‑market update.
Despite this, demand stayed muted. Pending sales fell 2.8% from a year earlier even as the median sale price inched up 1% to $381,750.
Inventory slipped 1.9%, the sharpest decline in more than two years, leaving a thin pool of “desirable” listings and keeping months of supply near a balanced 4.8.
“Neighborhoods that have always been popular are just as popular with homebuyers,” said Mike DeMello, a Redfin Premier agent in Oahu, HI.
“Move‑in ready, single‑family homes in those popular areas are attracting multiple offers, just like they always have. But neighborhoods that are typically slow are extra slow, and average neighborhoods are slower than usual. My advice for sellers in those places that aren’t red‑hot: Don’t overprice, because if your home sits on the market for longer than a few weeks, it’ll probably sit on the market for months and eventually sell for a lower price.”
Geopolitics stoked fresh rate fears
Affordability fatigue was not the only headwind. The Iran conflict added another layer of uncertainty just as lower rates raised hopes for a stronger spring.
“Last week, Americans were hit with headlines about mortgage rates dropping below 6%, which provided some hope. But over the weekend, those headlines were replaced with ones about the war in the Middle East,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research.
“The war could make some would‑be buyers think twice, much in the same way economic and global uncertainty have been turning off buyers for the last year, and it’s likely to cause short‑term volatility in mortgage rates. But the war’s impact on the economy will mostly be felt in oil markets, which are unlikely to have a big impact on mortgage rates or demand unless the conflict goes on much longer than expected.”
US Treasury yields surged higher at the start of the week as an oil-price spike and renewed conflict in the Middle East outweighed the market’s usual rush into safe assets, raising fresh questions for mortgage lenders and borrowers.https://t.co/27p6BKz7B1
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) March 2, 2026
California broker‑owner Amir Nurani, recently told Mortgage Professional America, “As far as its impact on the market, what people don't realize is war is inflationary.”
She explained that spikes in oil prices and the prospect of renewed money printing could keep Treasury yields and mortgage rates elevated.
At the start of the week, Ten‑year yields, which briefly touched an 11‑month low near 3.92%, climbed seven basis points to around 4.034%, with 30‑year yields also up five basis points to 4.68%.
Brokers urged pragmatism, not market timing
Some loan officers continue to warn clients against trying to pick the absolute bottom. Brokers stress that if a buyer could comfortably qualify at today’s rate, waiting for a deeper drop risks being priced out by future volatility or renewed bidding wars.
At the same time, others saw a healthier balance of power compared with the pandemic frenzy.
“This isn’t ’21. This isn’t ’22. You can’t just throw your house on the market and say, ‘Take it or leave it,’” North Carolina broker Rebecca Richardson previously told MPA, noting longer marketing times and the return of seller concessions.
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