Thin price gains masked a split market and an uneasy spring for lenders
Home prices in the US barely moved in March, even as underlying market forces continued to shift in ways that matter for originators and servicers.
Redfin’s latest Home Price Index showed national prices up 0.1% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis – the third straight month at that pace.
Year over year, prices rose 1.9%, the slowest growth rate in records going back to 2012.
For mortgage professionals, the headline masks a widening divide between markets where prices cooled and a smaller group still seeing double‑digit gains.
Redfin found prices fell month over month in 13 of the 46 large metros it analyzed, led by Fort Worth and Austin, where prices slipped 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.
Smaller declines were found in Nashville and Oakland at 0.6% and in Phoenix at 0.3%, while San Francisco posted the largest monthly increase at 1.2% and a 13% annual jump, helped by the local AI boom.
“Price growth is losing steam, with the slowest annual gains we’ve seen in a decade – in line with our expectations for the year,” said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin.
“High mortgage rates and global uncertainty are causing some would‑be buyers to back off, which is putting a lid on home prices. While that can be frustrating for homeowners hoping to sell, it’s the start of a reset for the housing market as a whole, and may ultimately bring homebuying costs down enough to bring some house hunters back.”
Redfin linked March’s softer demand to mortgage rates that moved from roughly 6% to 6.4% over the month and to concern over the broader economy and the war in Iran.
National Association of Realtors figures pointed to a similar pattern in closed sales, with March existing‑home transactions dropping 3.6% from February even after mortgage rates eased from recent peaks.
Meanwhile, RE/MAX reported that the median sales price in March stood at $440,000, up 2.3% from February and 1.1% from March 2025. Overall active inventory rose 4.4% year over year and 4.5% month over month.
"March's increase in sales is a signal that buyers and sellers are re-engaging as the spring market gets underway," said RE/MAX President and chief growth officer Chris Lim.
"At the same time, moderate price growth and inventory changes could signal the pace is becoming more deliberate, pointing to a housing market that's shifting toward balance rather than momentum. This suggests the next phase of the housing market being defined less by speed and more by precision."
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