MBA data showed another refinance‑driven spike even as rate outlook turned uncertain
Mortgage lenders saw a sharp pickup in volume in mid‑January as borrowers rushed to lock in lower rates, with refinance business once again driving the numbers. But early‑week moves in the bond market suggest that window could narrow quickly.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Jan. 16, 2026, showed overall applications up 14.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week, and 17% unadjusted.
Refinance activity rose 20% week over week and stood 183% higher than the same week a year earlier, while purchase applications increased 5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 18% year over year.
“Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications, which saw the strongest level of activity since September 2025. The 30‑year fixed rate averaged 6.16 percent, the lowest rate since September 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.
“These lower rates prompted greater refinance activity from conventional and VA refinance borrowers, with increases of 29 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Refinance applications accounted for more than 60 percent of applications, and the average loan size also moved higher.”
Kan added: “Purchase applications were also up over the week, fueled by an 8 percent increase in conventional loan activity, and were almost 18 percent higher than last year.”
Refinances accounted for 61.9% of total applications, up from 60.2% the previous week, while the adjustable‑rate mortgage share ticked up to 7.1%. The FHA share fell to 15.9% from 19.2%, the VA share edged up to 16.2%, and the USDA share held at 0.4%.
Average contract rates eased across most fixed‑rate products. The 30‑year fixed rate for conforming loans at or below $832,750 slipped to 6.16% with lower points, and 30‑year jumbos declined to 6.39%.
FHA‑backed 30‑year loans fell to 6.04%, and 15‑year fixed mortgages dropped to 5.55%. The average rate for 5/1 ARMs held at 5.42%, but higher points pushed the effective rate up.
In earlier January data, MBA reported that applications fell 9.7% over a holiday‑affected two‑week period, even as the refinance share climbed above 56%.
A separate MBA release the week prior to the latest survey showed a 28.5% jump in applications when the 30‑year fixed rate eased to 6.18%, with refinance volume up 40% and at its strongest pace since October 2025.
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