First American data showed prices barely rising as regional gaps widened
Home prices in the United States entered 2026 in a holding pattern. January data from First American Data & Analytics showed a 0.2% month‑over‑month dip and just a 0.4% annual gain in its national non‑seasonally adjusted home price index. Annual appreciation stayed below 1% for six straight months, extending a slowdown that began in late 2024.
The January release also revised December’s already soft reading lower, trimming the November–December move to a 0.24% decline.
At the state level, gains clustered in parts of New England and Appalachia, led by West Virginia, up 11.8% year over year, and Maine, up 10.1%, while large coastal markets such as California and Florida posted annual drops of 3.0% and 3.3%, respectively.
“January’s data suggests that house price appreciation started 2026 much the way it ended last year – subdued,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
“Prices declined modestly on a monthly basis and annual appreciation remained under 1% for the sixth consecutive month. The era of rapid price acceleration is long past, replaced by a market with price changes essentially flat on an annual basis. For buyers, that stability is meaningful. Soft price growth, combined with faster rising household incomes, continues to gradually improve affordability.”
Beneath the quiet national averages, more markets saw outright declines. “Price trends remain uneven across markets, but falling prices are becoming more common,” Fleming said.
“Twenty‑three of the top 30 markets posted annual price declines, compared with 20 markets that were flat or declining the month before. Midwestern and Northeastern markets continue to lead appreciation, with Warren, Mich., Cambridge, Mass., and St. Louis posting the strongest gains, while several Western markets – including Oakland, Denver, and Seattle – rank among those with the largest annual decreases. In a nationally stable market, local supply and demand dynamics continue to dictate performance.”
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December 2025 showed a national market nearly unchanged on price, with opportunity shifting to metros where tight inventory still supported gains and to buyers finally seeing income growth outrun home values.
First American’s price‑tier data underscored that split. Starter‑home prices in Midwestern hubs such as St. Louis and Warren rose between roughly 5.8% and 6.9% year over year, even as luxury tiers in several Western markets fell, leaving more negotiating room for move‑up borrowers in former boomtowns.
If wage growth continues to run ahead of home price appreciation – Fleming and other economists argued would define 2026 – the current pattern of flat national prices and sharper local divergences is likely to persist.
Smilarly, Fannie Mae projected the 30‑year fixed mortgage rate would average about 6.2% in early 2026 before slipping below 6% by year‑end, with home price growth slowing to near 1.3% in 2026 after stronger gains in 2024 and 2025.
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