First American data showed national prices flattening as buyers gained rare leverage
National home price growth slipped into negative territory in February, adding to evidence that the pandemic boom has given way to a flatter, more buyer-friendly market.
First American Data & Analytics’ latest Home Price Index showed national, non-seasonally adjusted prices were unchanged month over month and down 0.2% compared with February 2025, the first annual decline in 14 years.
Annual appreciation has remained below 1% for seven straight months, underscoring how quickly the fever has broken after years of double-digit gains, the firm reported.
The February release also revised December 2025 to January 2026 price performance slightly higher, from a 0.22% decline to a 0.17% drop.
At the metro level, Anaheim, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cambridge, Mass., and Warren, Mich., posted the strongest overall gains, while Oakland, Las Vegas, Seattle, Tampa and Riverside recorded the steepest annual declines.
In the starter tier, Cambridge and St. Louis led with more than 6% yearly increases, pointing to continued heat at the affordable end even as many luxury segments cooled.
National growth slips below zero
“Annual house price growth turned slightly negative this month, declining 0.15 percent compared with a year ago—the first year-over-year decline since 2012,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
“While the shift into negative territory is notable, the decline is modest and reflects a market that has flattened after years of rapid price gains. Importantly, near-zero national price growth combined with rising household incomes and an increase in homes for sale continues to improve affordability. As we moved into the spring home-buying season, the typical seasonal firming in prices may have returned, but today’s slower growth trajectory suggested a more balanced and sustainable market for buyers and sellers alike,” he said.
Cooling spreads across major metros
“Price trends at the market level underscored just how broad this cooling has become,” Fleming said.
“Twenty-three of the top 30 markets we track posted annual price declines, while the remaining seven recorded low single-digit gains. Most markets are entering the spring season with either flat or declining prices compared with a year ago, which is meaningful relief for potential buyers. As always, local supply and demand conditions will determine how prices respond during the peak buying months. However, with more inventory available and price growth subdued across many of the markets, we were on the cusp of the most buyer-friendly spring we had seen in recent years.”
Affordability tailwind, not a reset
For mortgage professionals, the latest print extended a trend already documented in earlier First American data. December’s HPI showed national prices “nearly unchanged” for 2025 as income growth began to outrun values, while January 2026 brought only a 0.4% annual gain and a 0.2% monthly dip.
Separate analysis from First American’s Real House Price Index found affordability has improved year over year for seven straight months through late 2025, even though it remained well below pre-pandemic norms.
Taken together, February’s negative reading and the earlier slowdown suggest not a crash but a grinding normalization that rewards borrowers with patience and brokers with deep local knowledge.
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