ICE data showed a sharp November spike that analysts largely blamed on timing
United States mortgage delinquencies jumped in November to their highest level in more than four years, but ICE Mortgage Technology argued the surge looked more like a calendar story than a turn in borrower health.
The firm’s latest First Look report put the national delinquency rate at 3.85% as of November 30, with 2.3 million loans at least 30 days past due and not in foreclosure.
ICE reported that the number of past-due mortgages rose by 275,000 from October, taking the total number of loans at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure to about 2.34 million.
November’s overall delinquency rate was up 15% month over month and roughly 3% year over year, while 609,000 borrowers who have been current in October fell behind on payments – the largest single-month inflow since May 2020.
“While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we’ve seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments didn’t post until early December,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE.
“Overall performance was in line with what historical patterns would suggest.”
ICE noted that similar calendar patterns have appeared when November last ended on a Sunday, in 2014, 2008 and 2003, each time producing larger delinquency jumps than this year’s 50-basis-point increase.
Mixed foreclosure and prepayment trends
Behind November’s headline moves, prepayment activity pulled back after hitting a three-and-a-half-year high in October, with the monthly prepayment rate falling 18% to 0.83%.
Foreclosure activity dipped on the month but remained well above 2024 levels: foreclosure starts were down 31.5% from October to 26,000, even as starts, sales and active inventory all stayed more than 20% higher than a year earlier.
Regional performance diverged. ICE’s non‑current rate – combining delinquencies and foreclosures – remained elevated in states such as Louisiana and Mississippi, both close to 9%, while markets including Washington, Idaho and Colorado held closer to the mid‑2% range.
What it meant for lenders and servicers
For lenders and servicers, the November spike underscores the need to separate calendar noise from credit signal.
ICE’s own comparison with prior Sunday month‑ends, together with earlier calendar‑driven blips in August 2025 and December 2023, suggested the latest rise is more timing distortion than systemic stress.
The takeaway for mortgage executives is less about an immediate deterioration in portfolios and more about closely watching December cures, roll rates and regional pockets of stress to see how quickly performance reverts once the calendar effect fades.
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