Experts give their thoughts on opportunities and headwinds in 2026

[00:00:00] Kurt Strandson: So I think it'll be a good year for home purchasing in general compared to the last two or three years. 

[00:00:04] Kevin Oto: There's huge opportunity in our market. I actually just closed a loan that someone actually found me off Chad GBT, which was eye-opening. 

[00:00:12] Thuan Nguyen: It's a golden opportunity to make tons of money. 

[00:00:19] Matt Sexton: Hello again, and welcome to the latest edition of MPA TV. I'm honored to be joined by three esteemed guests on today's episode. They are Kurt Stranson, President and CEO of Pinnacle Mortgage. Kevin Odo, broker owner of Greenhaven Capital, and Tuan Nguyen, founder of Loan Factory. Thank you all for joining us today on MPA TV. We're going to start off with Kurt. It has already been an eventful start to 2026 in the mortgage industry. As you survey the current landscape, where do you see opportunities for brokers here in the new year? 

[00:50:00] Kurt Strandson: Well, there's a lot of opportunities with rates hitting almost the lowest we've seen in three years. A few weeks ago, refinances are up, NAR, MBA. have great forecasts for the start of 2026 with home prices up slightly, loan origination volume up slightly, and rates averaging close to 6% from down from 6.7 beginning of 2025. The other key factor is there's less licensed loan originators. So there's a lot of volume out there. I think the key factor is you got to stay in touch with your clients, stay in touch with your business partners and be there for them to take advantage of those opportunities. 

[00:01:24] Matt Sexton: Kevin, your thoughts? 

[00:01:26] Kevin Oto: Yeah, I agree with Kurt there. I think the lower rate is bringing on a lot of opportunities to do more volume. But in addition to that, I think that we're in a transition phase right now. We've already kind of been in one. But the brokers who are really embracing AI and adapting to these changes, there's huge opportunity in that market. I actually just closed a loan that someone actually found me off chat GBT, which was eye opening. So I think there's a huge opportunity for people to utilize AI to improve their processes. implementing their marketing and just use it to educate their clients and make sure that they're able to really capitalize on this new wave of business that's coming in. 

[00:02:03] Matt Sexton: Thuan, your thoughts? 

[00:02:05] Thuan Nguyen: Yeah, I have the same thought as well. Very interesting. We all have the same thought because you can see that trade have been dropping, right? And I see a lot of clients already refinance and a lot more clients are waiting and waiting to jump in. So it raise up just a little bit more. We're going to see a lot of people refinancing. So this is a huge opportunity for all loan officers and brokers out there. And I think that we all should be ready for it. I mean, why not? It's a golden opportunity to make tons of money. So just a little preparation will help us make tons of money. And this is the greatest opportunity for many, many of us. 

[00:02:53] Matt Sexton: Yeah, it definitely feels like big opportunities out there with great opportunities. Obviously, there are some headwinds to work through. We'll start off with Kevin with this one. What do you think those headwinds are here in the new year? And how are you looking to best tackle those? 

[00:03:06] Kevin Oto: I mean, I think one of the headwinds that all brokers are facing really is the rising cost to originate loans and shrinking margins, right? Like cost of credit, like everything's going up. Like there's not any cost for us that's getting cheaper. And I've noticed margin shrinking, right? So, Really, we have to learn how to operate more efficiently on thinner margins and then focus on more like volume, scalability and consistency. So really just tightening up the price processes, leveraging the technology and just being like really intentional on how we run our business. I think that's one of the things that we have to focus on this year. 

[00:03:41] Thuan Nguyen: Yeah, I saw the same thing. Margin compression, a lot more competition. talking about. More competition, I think, is a lot of realtors are getting loan license and they will not refer you clients anymore because they will capture that client for themselves. And I see a lot of brokerage, like real estate brokerage, like even like Zillow, now getting license, become a lender and competing against us. A lot of real estate companies now partner with mortgage companies. They formed joint ventures. A lot of that happening. They even call themselves relo. They're a real estate and loan officer together. So those phenomena are leading to a lot more competition. And I see a lot of loan officers are struggling. So you have to be a good loan officer. You have to be good in almost everything. Competitive and great, good service in order to survive. In this market, I think that you have to be really good. to be survival role. Otherwise, if you're not good enough, you're out. You're out.  

[00:04:56] Matt Sexton: No question about it. Kurt, your thoughts? 

[00:04:58] Kurt Strandson: Yeah, I think one of the biggest headwinds is volatility. I mean, we saw rate drops in September 2024, again into September 2025, and then again here at the beginning of 2026. And I think when you're out there chasing those refinances, trying to help people save money, debt consolidate, do those next transactions, a lot of times they're waiting for even a lower rate. If the loan makes sense, lock your loan, live to see another day. The advantage of being a broker, we work with at our company over 90 different investors. You can relock a loan if it goes down. but you can't get yesterday's rates. And I think the other piece for good loan officers is to understand that behind the scenes with regards to the financial piece, use your tools, use MBS Live, use Mortgage News Daily, kind of have an idea of where rates are coming in the short term. So when you're talking to your clients, you're strategically trying to find what makes sense to them. You have an idea of what's coming in the near future. Because a lot of times they're hesitant to, oh, I can get a little bit lower and the rates go the other direction. And sometimes they don't come right just back down. There's been a lot of hyper volatility for geopolitical events going on, economic events, tariffs are on, tariffs are off. They got domestic events going on. There's weather events going on. So there's a lot of hyper volatility and you have to strategically be prepared for that to help your clients and strategize their transaction. 

[00:06:13] Matt Sexton: And no question about that. And Kevin mentioned rising costs. That kind of leads us into our next question. We'll start with Tuan on this one. but This month at MPA, we've been focusing on affordability challenges in the mortgage industry. There have been many interesting ideas floated around about improving affordability. Which of those ideas make sense to you? Are there other ways to tackle this issue that people should be talking about? 

[00:06:37] Thuan Nguyen: I saw that there are a few floating ideas by President Trump to make real estate more affordable. he has two ideas. The biggest one that everyone is talking about is lower the rate, right? He tried to replace the Fed chairman. He tried to do whatever it takes to lower the rate. So with lower rate, people can afford more. You know, the payment is less. And the second is to reduce the demand by, you know, manning all major corporations from owning a lot of homes in America. So those are the two great ideas that I think might help the market. Otherwise, I don't see how we can improve affordability. 

[00:07:28] Matt Sexton: Kurt, your thoughts? 

[00:07:30] Kurt Strandson: Yeah, I think the two proposals were a 50-year mortgage and then having some regulatory action on institutional investors. I think both could work for certain people. A 50-year mortgage, is it a great financial decision? Probably not. But can it help certain individuals in certain situations that can get into a home now and maybe look to reorganize their mortgage down the road? If it can and it can help some people, why not offer it? It doesn't mean it's good for everybody. The other piece with institutional investors, they serve a role. There's distressed properties. There's neighborhoods that are dilapidated that need institutional investors to come in, clean up those houses, make them into a retail condition for someone to buy and just move into turnkey. One of the things that... I would propose in that arena is a delay. Offer a period of time where it's offered to an owner occupant first to help the affordability, to help the housing supply. And after a certain period of time, open it up to institutional investors if it's still sitting on the market. I think that they serve a purpose, but you don't want institutional investors competing with first home buyers or folks looking just to get into a home to live in. I think that's been the biggest issue. And then as Juan had said, interest rates. I know that there's been some action like two or three weeks ago with regards to purchasing mortgage bonds. It was from a different source. In the past, it was always through Fed regulation and purchasing mortgage-backed securities in the secondary market. I think by using the surplus at Fannie and Freddie, you're doing it without adding to the debt. And I think that's a better way to go. It's a new way to go. I think that came out of left field when it happened. I don't think any of us expected that, but it had a positive effect on the marketplace. And I think overall for the economy, that might not be a bad thing to exercise in the future. 

[00:09:13] Matt Sexton: Yeah, totally agree. It definitely caused a bump down in rates when that happened. Kevin, your thoughts? 

[00:09:18] Kevin Oto: Yeah, I mean, they kind of nailed all those points, but I think the most effective one to kind of help affordability was the purchase of the mortgage-backed bonds, the $200 billion that he talked about. But really what's going to help affordability is three things. It's going to be rates, home prices go down, and just having a more balanced market, right? A more balanced market gives... Buyers more flexibility to maybe negotiate seller credits of seller credits can either help with their closing costs or help them get lower rates. So I know the idea from the current administration is trying to help housing, trying to make it more affordable. And hopefully this will lead to more balanced markets. So buyers have a little bit more purchasing power, have a little bit more negotiation power to help get them a little bit more ideal terms to make the housing a little bit more affordable for them. 

[00:10:03] Matt Sexton: Absolutely. We'll come back around to Kurt for the next question. Last year, we saw some interesting regulatory oversight and enforcement changes as the CFPB was slimmed down and states filled the gap. How have you navigated those changes? And do you have tips for brokerages who are still working their way through this new regulatory landscape? 

[00:10:21] Kurt Strandson: Absolutely. I would say, number one, participate in your industry groups, build relationships with your state regulators, understand what they're looking for, Be a partner to them. You know, they want to work through. us as professionals to be good stewards to our clients and to the community and to the markets that we work in. You know, in New Hampshire, we have a great relationship with our banking department. We actually have a forum in two days hosting them and another other commissioners, banking commissioner, insurance commissioner, AG's office on a panel and just establishing professional relationships with them so we can collaborate and help them do our jobs better. If they if we know what they're looking for, they're looking for for us. They're getting feedback from consumers and the industry and having that relationship and that dialogue. It helps us work better in our markets. 

[00:11:10] Matt Sexton: Yeah, absolutely. Kevin? 

[00:11:13] Kevin Oto: I mean, I've always believed that compliance really has to be proactive and not reactive. So it's really important just to have a strong compliance team or a resource that you can call on just to make sure that you're staying on top of all the guidelines and procedures. So. Me personally, I always err on the side of caution. If there's always a gray area or something I'm not sure about, I'll always ask first before I act. Always get the proper documents or the proper paperwork to make sure that you're doing things the right way. And it's pretty simple. Just invest in compliance early. Don't be reactive. Be proactive. It protects you, your clients, and your business long term. So that's what I would recommend. 

[00:11:50] Matt Sexton: Absolutely. Thuan? 

[00:11:52] Thuan Nguyen: Yeah, I have the same recommendation. We cannot be... We cannot relax on the compliance part. We have to be always ready. And you will never know. I mean, any state can come with anything against you easily. So it's something that we have to invest on early on, make sure we can always ready for any audit. 

[00:12:21] Matt Sexton: Yeah, that's great advice from all of you on that. Final question for the group today, and we'll start with Kevin for this one. What is one thing in the mortgage space that you're most excited for in the new year, whether it's something we're all expecting or maybe something we're not expecting that you predict will happen in the new year? 

[00:12:36] Kevin Oto: Well, I'm just excited for the people that stuck around that are still here that are finally seeing a little bit of lower rates and finally trying to see a little more volume. I'm excited to hopefully see a more balanced market where buyers have a little bit more opportunity and negotiation to help make housing more affordable. And I'm also excited about... the technology changes that are coming in and things in AI that can really help scale our businesses. 

[00:12:58] Matt Sexton: Thuan your thoughts? 

[00:13:00] Thuan Nguyen: Yes the ai thing is what excited me i mean it is a very cool very very cool technology that can change uh not only us but also changing the consumer perception AI will help us automate. It helps us with... so many other things with not only with automated processing but can all help us make the application process easier making the underwriting easier it help us with marketing automated marketing there's so much that ai we can rely on ai and that is something that we all have to be ready for. I mean, it will change our industry one more time. 

[00:13:53] Matt Sexton: Kurt, the last word is yours. 

[00:13:54] Kurt Strandson: Yeah, I think one of the biggest things for this year is having more inventory. Rates are coming down, so the houses are becoming slightly more affordable. But one of the problems we saw in the last two or three years is there wasn't a lot of housing inventory. So when someone's going to bid on a house, they're bidding over asking, waiving inspections, doing appraisal waivers, appraisal gaps. And it was increasing the cost to acquire housing. I think with a more normalized housing supply market with rates coming down, sellers are more likely to list because they're now replacing with a lower rate than when they were in the 7%, 8% range. And in addition, it creates a better opportunity for those first-time homebuyers that they can get a home inspection. When they're coming into their first home, they usually don't have the largest down payment. They don't have the most reserves. So you want to be able to get into safe housing and put people in a better position. I think that opportunity is going to exist in 2026. They're saying home prices will be up slightly. House sales up 14% was reported by NAR, the last economic outlook that they put out. So I think it'll be a good year for home purchasing in general compared to the last two or three years. 

[00:14:55] Matt Sexton: There's a lot to be excited about in 2026. I think we're all looking forward to what should be a great year. That's just about going to wrap things up for today's edition of MPA TV. Gentlemen, thank you so much for taking the time to join us and certainly wish you all the best of luck and continued success in the new year. Thanks again to our guest, and thank you for watching this edition of MPA TV. For my guest, I'm Matt Saxton saying so long, and we'll see you again next time.