Latest HVI shows housing market still in limbo
Property values in New Zealand edged down -0.2% in July, according to Cotality NZ’s latest hedonic Home Value Index (HVI).
The annual change also recorded a -0.2% decline, leaving the national median property value at $891,057.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said the data confirms that market conditions remain subdued.
“At the end of 2024, our analysis suggested that 2025 was likely to be a ‘year of conflicting forces’ in the property market, with the upwards influence of interest rate cuts likely more than offset by economic headwinds such as an abundance of listing and weak labour market,” Davidson said.
“At that broad theme has proven correct, with regions including Auckland and Wellington both remaining soft. Even in more resilient areas like Hamilton and Christchurch, the picture isn’t much brighter.”
He described the market as showing a slow, steady trend.
“That said, rising sales counts are a key finding factor for the present,” Davidson said.
Additional market insights show that buyer activity is slowly improving but remains muted. Tony Alexander’s latest NZHL Property Report notes that first-home buyers are still the dominant force, while investors remain cautious and are more likely to sell than buy. Fear of missing out (FOMO) remains very limited, and 28% of agents still describe New Zealand as a buyer’s market.
Main centre property values
Median property values in the main centres for July were:
- Auckland: $1,098,605
- Wellington: $859,070
- Christchurch: $801,155
- Hamilton: $801,155
- Tauranga: $901,185
- Dunedin: $701,155
Auckland market still favouring buyers
Davidson said July’s results will temper any emerging optimism around Auckland’s residential market, with only North Shore (0.0%) narrowly avoiding a drop. Franklin, Papakura, and Waitakere were relatively stable, but Manukau, Auckland City, and North Shore each fell by -0.9% to -1.0%.
All sub-markets have declined over the past three months, and only North Shore has managed a minor annual lift.
“The stock of available listings around Tāmaki Makaurau has started to drift down, but it’s starting from a very elevated base, and our latest value figures re-emphasise that it’s still a buyer’s market in our largest city,” Davidson said.
Wellington and other centres show mixed results
The Wellington area dropped -0.2% in July, while other main centres also posted mixed outcomes.
“The housing market is still struggling to get its feet after the downturn,” Davidson said.
Regional markets: Pockets of resilience
Provincial areas showed slightly more resilience than main centres, although most regions still saw minor falls or limited growth.
- Tauranga-Kiwa Gisborne fell -1.3%
- Heretaunga Hastings, Whangārei, and Ngāmutu New Plymouth rose at least +0.5%
“It’s early days and any perceived ‘green shoots’ in the property market are yet to be proven and not universal,” Davidson said. “After all, housing conditions are still relatively subdued almost everywhere. But a slightly more balanced recovery over the next year or two will be a factor to watch in terms of regional differences as price levels relative to urban areas.”
Property market outlook
Davidson said buyers and sellers are likely to remain cautious, with modest activity growth expected as interest rates fall in late 2025 and into 2026.
“But first active buyers and mum and dad investors are active across the purchase side of the equation at present, but it’s also worth noting that many vendors aren’t rushed to present either – those who are confident about their employment security may well be happy to wait for the price they want,” he said.
Davidson also highlighted the importance of the next RBNZ cash rate decision on Aug. 20, where rates are likely to be cut to 3%.
“The market may struggle to see much more than a 1-2% rise in 2025,” he said.
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