Listings outnumber buyers, cooling a once-hot market
Austin’s housing market, once a pandemic-era poster child for bidding wars, moved firmly into slow‑burn territory in December. Typical home went under contract taking 106 days to find a buyer, the slowest December on record and the longest timeline among the 50 largest United States metros, according to Redfin.
Nationally, homes that went under contract in December took a median 60 days to sell. Austin’s shift followed years of rapid price gains and a homebuilding surge that left the metro with an estimated 128% more sellers than buyers, the largest imbalance among major markets. Redfin data showed Austin’s median sale price fell roughly 4% year over year in December, one of the steepest drops in the country after a decade in which prices had already far outpaced the national average.
Negotiating power returns to buyers
“Homebuyers in Austin have the luxury of time and bargaining power,” local Redfin Premier real estate agent Andrew Vallejo said.
“I have a buyer who just offered $560,000 for a home that was listed at $599,000 and a few years ago would’ve been worth $700,000. There’s a pretty good chance the seller will say yes, given how slow the market is. Another buyer I’m working with also made an offer on a house for below the list price and plans to bid on a different home if the seller doesn't accept.”
The gap between ownership and renting costs kept many would‑be buyers on the sidelines.
“One of my buyers just purchased the home they had been renting, and their monthly payment is going to jump from $2,900 to $6,500 because now they have to pay for mortgage interest, taxes and insurance,” Vallejo said.
“They love the property, which is why they bought it, but they’re outliers—most people aren’t willing to take on such a high payment when they can rent for much less.”
Austin’s chill mirrors a national reset
Redfin previously identified Austin as the nation’s strongest buyer’s market in 2025, estimating roughly 130% more sellers than buyers as inventory built across Texas and Florida.
Nationwide, there were about 37% more sellers than buyers last fall, and roughly 62% of US purchasers in 2025 paid below list price, often winning discounts and concessions as homes sat longer, according to separate Redfin and industry analyses.
What it meant for mortgage professionals
For brokers and lenders, Austin’s reversal from runaway appreciation to extended marketing times shows how quickly leverage could swing.
As one Austin broker told Mortgage Professional America in 2024, “buyers are buying like it’s their job right now” despite higher borrowing costs – a sentiment that has since given way to a more selective, rate‑sensitive clientele.
In Austin and similar Sun Belt markets, opportunity still exists, but it favors well‑capitalized borrowers who could tolerate mid‑6% mortgage rates and use a slow market to structure deals on their terms.
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