Global uncertainty keeping buyers on the sidelines as inventory increases

Long-time mortgage executive sees Miami market stalling as buyers put purchases on hold

Global uncertainty keeping buyers on the sidelines as inventory increases

The US housing market has a record spread between the number of sellers and buyers. However, even with increased inventory, one mortgage executive is seeing potential buyers hold off on purchases due to economic uncertainty.

Redfin released a report last week stating there are nearly 500,000 more sellers on the market than buyers, the most on record. As a percentage, there are 33.7% more sellers than buyers. One year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by 6.5%, and two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers.

This week, Redfin released an additional report stating that there are $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the United States. This is a 20.3% increase year over year and the highest dollar amount ever. More than $330 billion worth of homes have been on the market for 60 days or more.

However, due to high housing costs and economic uncertainty due to market volatility and tariffs, homebuying demand is declining.

Marc Halpern (pictured top), CEO of Foundation Mortgage, has been in the mortgage industry for more than 25 years. In South Florida, he sees the same trends noted in the Redfin reports.

“In the South Florida market, we are definitely seeing more listings sit longer than they did a year or two ago,” Halpern told Mortgage Professional America. “Inventory is rising, but buyers are moving cautiously, especially first-timers and investors. The disconnect between what sellers expect and what buyers can realistically afford is widening."

He said that while sellers are starting to reduce prices to attract buyers, many of those reductions aren’t enough yet to get buyers to act.

"Sellers are starting to come down, but not dramatically,” he said. “Many are still anchored to 2021 pricing. That said, savvy buyers are finding deals, especially in the luxury segment and on properties that need work. We’re seeing sellers become more flexible on concessions and price if the property sits for more than 45 days."

Miami not immune to market challenges

Halpern said that the Miami market is unique, and therefore sometimes are more immune to national trends in the mortgage space. Right now, the region is seeing those challenges.

"Miami has always been a unique market, driven by international demand, cash buyers, and investors,” Halpern said. “But right now, even that segment is more conservative. Higher rates, tighter budgets, and global uncertainty are making buyers think twice. At the same time, a lot of homeowners who bought or refinanced at ultra-low rates are starting to consider selling, which is contributing to the inventory buildup."

One surprising note is that even high-end buyers are pausing due to the current economic conditions.

"In South Florida, we’re seeing real friction in the upper end of the market,” he said. “I’ve personally attended open houses for properties priced at $1.5 million and above in both Miami and the Keys, and foot traffic has been noticeably light. I also spoke with another experienced realtor who confirmed that there’s a real slowdown in buyer activity in the $1.8 million and up range.

“Between higher insurance premiums, elevated property taxes, and ongoing rate concerns, luxury buyers are hitting the brakes unless the deal is too good to pass up. Even well-qualified buyers are waiting for more leverage."

Room for negotiation

Although the market is challenging, Halpern notes that there are opportunities available for buyers who are interested in moving forward despite the economic headwinds.

"This is also a good market to negotiate a strong bargain,” Halpern said. “Especially if you're a serious buyer with flexible financing. Sellers with homes sitting on the market are more open to concessions, rate buydowns, and price adjustments. We’re not seeing a market crash, but we are seeing more room for negotiation than we've had in years. Brokers who know how to structure creative offers can help their clients capitalize on that."

Still, major improvements in market conditions will likely wait until home prices and interest rates decline. In the meantime, buyers may be able to find opportunities in non-agency loans.

"Buyers need clarity and confidence,” he said. “That comes from stable rates, better inventory match, and realistic pricing. Brokers can help close that gap by educating buyers on creative financing, like Non-QM loans or bank statement programs, and helping them understand where the real value lies in today’s market."

Halpern encourages brokers to find creative solutions for buyers in the market for a new home but might hesitate due to high interest rates and high home prices. He also said partnership between mortgage and real estate brokers can prove essential to find a deal that works for everyone.

"Don’t just sell a loan, be a problem solver.” Halpern said. “Help buyers explore loan options beyond the conventional 30-year fixed. And for sellers’ agents, work with brokers early in the process to help structure deals that actually close. Collaboration is key right now."

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