Supporters say he's just the person to solve New York's worsening housing crisis. Opponents fear an exodus of big earners under his high-tax plans. What's next for America's biggest city?
The race to become New York’s next mayor is entering its closing stretch, with upstart Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani currently odds-on to clinch what once seemed an unlikely victory.
The political newcomer, whose candidacy has spawned a huge grassroots campaign and stunned the Democratic Party elite, holds a wide lead in most polls over his closest rival, former mayor Andrew Cuomo.
Housing, unsurprisingly, has emerged as a dominant theme throughout the election campaign, whose result will be decided when New Yorkers go to the polls on November 4.
And policies aimed at tackling the city’s mounting cost-of-living crisis are key factors behind Mamdani’s soaring popularity. The 33-year-old has pledged to curb skyrocketing shelter costs by freezing rent for all stabilized tenants, cracking down on unscrupulous landlords, and turbocharging affordable housing construction.
Those plans have resonated with renters who’ve seen monthly costs spike, with the median asking rent in the city climbing by 5.6% in 2025’s first quarter and rising across all boroughs.
Unsurprisingly, plenty of top Wall Street executives are viewing Mamdani’s candidacy with a wary eye – although recent research by Business Insider showed many lesser-paid back-office workers in New York’s financial center are throwing their support behind him because they’re facing affordability challenges even on decent paychecks.
Mamdani’s campaign says the housing crisis is the “number one reason” working families are leaving New York. Among its other plans to solve that conundrum:
- Tripling production of “permanently affordable, union-built, rent-stabilized homes” by building 200,000 new units in the next decade.
- Fully staffing housing agencies and fast-tracking any 100% affordable development.
- Introducing a “Comprehensive Plan” for the city aimed at increasing density near transit hubs, tackling the legacy of racially discriminatory zoning, and ending the requirement to build parking lots.
- Overhauling the Mayor’s Office Protect Tenants and streamline code enforcement.
- Allowing tenants to schedule and track inspections with a revamped 311, and mandating the City to make a repair and send the landlord the bill if the landlord refuses to do it themselves.
- In “extreme” cases when owners show constant neglect for tenants, “the City will decisively step in and take control of their properties.”
That’s an ambitious policy slate, and one that’s unnerved many establishment Democrats who prefer the centrist Cuomo. But Mamdani’s policies appear to be resonating more with New Yorkers at present than Cuomo’s, whose 100-day affordable housing action plan has vowed to:
- Make at least 15,000 units available by increasing revenue bonding from the Battery Park City Authority, at least 15,000 more by upping the percentage of Economically Targeted Investments available for affordable housing from the New York City Retirement Systems, and up to 50,000 more units by getting vacant rent-stabilized apartments back onto the market.
- Speed up the time it takes for residents to enter new affordable units under the Housing Connect program.
- Boost City capital funding by $7.5 billion to support traditional affordable housing, permanent supportive housing, and new construction and renovations on NYCHA campuses.
- Redirect $182.5 million in PILOT payments, used for general budget relief, to a fund specifically for affordable housing.
- Leverage federal low-income housing tax credit rules, expanding access to financing.
How will the housing and mortgage markets react to a Mamdani win?
Mamdani’s ambitious policy slate has found favor among plenty of voters whose finances have been pummeled by the city’s growing unaffordability.
Recent reports have shone a light on the huge chunk rental payments are taking out of average New Yorkers’ annual incomes. Lower payments, more protection for tenants and more affordable housing options would come as welcome relief for many.
Still, the platform has also sparked questions over how financial markets and wealthy investors – whose interests are unlikely to see much sympathy among everyday New Yorkers – will react to a potentially radical approach in the mayor’s office.
The Mamdani campaign says it’ll finance that policy plan by bumping the corporate tax rate to 11.5% and charging New Yorkers earning more than $1 million per year a flat 2% tax.
That could have significant consequences for the city’s real estate market, according to Brooklyn-based broker Kevin Leibowitz (pictured below) of Grayton Mortgages.
“For real estate values, I’m worried about over-taxation on those that are contributing a lot to the city’s coffers,” he told Mortgage Professional America. “On the high end, if there’s a negative tax consequence for those highest earners, then that might cause an exodus.
“On mid- to lower-priced properties, everybody’s going to be staying put because they kind of have to. This is where they cash their paychecks. In terms of going to other nearby areas – Long Island, upstate New Jersey, commutable neighborhoods – none of them are a reasonable tax haven in comparison.”
Mamdani’s plans would likely face major roadblocks if he’s elected – not least from President Trump, who’s labeled him a “communist” and threatened to send National Guard troops to New York if he wins.
But the impact of a Mamdani win on the mortgage market, according to Leibowitz, would be minimal. “On the mortgage side, I don’t think there will be any issues,” he said. “We’ve got a nationwide mortgage system that’s very robust irrespective of where we are and the neighborhoods that we serve.
“We have, for the time being, high-balance conforming mortgages in New York City, which means we can do larger mortgages than we could do elsewhere. We can do loan sizes up to $1.209 million – that mortgage will accommodate a good portion of some of the properties in New York City.”
How to ‘move the needle’ in New York’s housing crisis?
What the city’s housing market will look like, and whether affordability will have materially improved by the end of the next mayor’s term, is anyone’s guess.
Leibowitz said “creative solutions” are needed to change that picture, including a public-private partnership to redevelop swaths of land owned by the city.
“Look at the Columbia Street waterfront,” he said. “It’s potentially some of the most valuable land in the city, just in terms of location.
“But I believe that we really need a robust public-private partnership to really make an impact on housing stock and move the needle. And it’s very difficult to move the needle in a city of 8.5 million people.”
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
