While the national outlook remains subdued, certain metro areas continue to post growth
National pending home sales hit a new 2026 low last month – but the decline was far from uniform, with certain markets posting solid growth despite wider economic headwinds.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said contract signings on existing homes were down 2.2% in July compared with the same time last year, signaling that the sluggish national housing outlook isn’t shifting much.
Digging deeper into the figures, though, shows that some metro areas are thriving. In Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk (VA-NC), pending sales surged by 17.2%, while San Antonio-New Braunfels posted an 11.8% year-over-year increase.
Cincinnati (OH-KY-IN) is another market that’s bucking the national trend. Pending home sales were up 6.2% in July compared with 12 months before, showing why focusing on the national picture doesn’t always give an accurate indication of how specific smaller markets are faring.
The reasons for the city’s housing market resilience, according to Cincinnati-based Edge Home Finance mortgage broker Jessica Eddy, are unsurprising: the fact that affordability is much less stretched than other major markets.
“The market stays strong here in the tri-state area, and that’s really due to the overall economy,” she told Mortgage Professional America. “The cost of living here compared to other parts of the country is much more affordable, and that’s a big draw.”
That reality is drawing attention from other parts of the country. Eddy said the last 18 months have brought a noticeable uptick in buyers relocating from higher-cost markets, partly due to favorable property taxes that feel low relative to what they might be used to, and higher purchasing power than they experience elsewhere.
Homebuying competition varies from one area to the next
In some of Cincinnati’s most sought-after areas – Mason, Liberty Township, Montgomery, Hyde Park in Ohio, and Fort Thomas in Northern Kentucky – the concept of a buyer’s market is largely absent.
“Fort Thomas, Kentucky – there’s a waiting list a mile long just to get into their swim club. A home there is [selling] pretty quickly because of the desirable area and the name it has for schools,” Eddy said. “In those areas, we’re not really seeing any price reductions.”
Even in quieter micro-markets, homes that are correctly priced are still moving fast – and where sellers are making adjustments, concessions are proving more effective than price cuts. Eddy said plenty of current contracts include a seller concession of some kind.
“Before they offer a price reduction, let’s see about seller concessions,” she said. “Sellers are working more with buyers in order to get the deal done.”
Familiar challenges weigh against homebuyers
Of course, the Cincinnati market isn’t immune from the wider challenges facing the national market – including interest rate volatility and uncertainty about the impact the Iran war will have on the economy looking ahead.
Freddie Mac said Thursday that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked lower this week, slipping to 6.65% and providing “modest relief” for homebuyers.
But bond yields were on the way back up in the afternoon, reversing an earlier drop following a debt buyback announcement by the Treasury Department.
That unpredictability – and the constant flow of seemingly contradictory news on the Iran front – is giving brokers and buyers no certainty about a steadier rate outlook.
“So much of this is played out on social media and the information gets out there so much quicker,” Eddy said. “Whatever one leader said versus another directly affects the market. It’s no longer waiting a few days – it has an immediate effect.”
The psychological weight of a 7% threshold also remains an issue. Mortgage rates have moved significantly higher since the outbreak of the war at the end of February, and while they’re still some way off the sevens, Eddy said a further jump in rates would rattle some prospective homebuyers.
“If you’re looking at 6.99% versus 7.125%, that’s not going to change the payment that much,” she said, “but mentally it does something. Headlines get out there and it causes panic.”
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