A major decision this week could set the tone for mortgage rates ahead
Image from Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
With president Donald Trump’s self-imposed trade deal deadline set for Wednesday, mortgage analysts and brokers are bracing for potential ripples across the economy. The administration’s latest round of tariff threats—set to take effect August 1—has amplified uncertainty in financial markets, including mortgage-backed securities.
Trump announced Sunday that the United States is nearing several new trade agreements, but warned that letters notifying countries of higher tariffs would be issued by July 9. “If you don’t move things along, then on August 1 you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level,” US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on CNN, referring to duties as high as 50%.
While some deals, including those with India and the European Union, appear close, analysts warn that unresolved tensions could keep US bond yields—and mortgage rates—stubbornly high. According to Bessent, the administration was focused on 18 important trading partners that account for 95% of the US trade deficit, adding that many countries have been “foot-dragging” in negotiations.
Tariffs’ impact on the mortgage market
For brokers, the stakes are tangible. Mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to inflation expectations and geopolitical risk. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates have dropped slightly below 6.7%, a two-month low, but economic uncertainty triggered by the trade war has kept rates above 6.5% throughout 2025.
“With inflation data still sticky and tariffs ongoing, the consensus possibility remains a first cut in September, if not later," Erin Sykes, housing economist and founder of Sykes Properties, told CNET.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett hinted that some flexibility exists beyond Wednesday. “There are things that are close, and so maybe things will push back past the deadline,” he told CBS.
But even if new deals are announced this week, their impact on mortgage rates may be limited in the short term, with home prices remaining high and borrowing costs still prohibitive.
How do you think upcoming trade decisions will influence mortgage plans? Share your insights below.
