Redfin data showed prices barely moved as sellers outnumbered buyers
United States home prices barely moved in February, underscoring how the balance of power in the housing market tilted toward the limited pool of active buyers while affordability remained stretched.
Redfin’s Home Price Index showed prices rose just 0.1% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the slowest pace in seven months, and 1.9% from a year earlier.
Redfin’s index, which used a repeat-sales method similar to the S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller benchmarks, measured how prices changed between subsequent sales of the same single‑family homes, offering lenders and originators an early read on turning points before official Case‑Shiller data published.
The February figures covered the three months ending February 28, 2026, and pointed to a market that cooled from the double‑digit annual gains seen during the pandemic.
“It was the strongest buyer’s market in recent history—for those who could afford to buy,” Redfin principal economist Sheharyar Bokhari said.
“There were a record 46% more home sellers than buyers, meaning the buyers who were in the market had negotiating power when it came to price.” He added that “homebuyers in many markets were having success asking for discounts and other concessions, and they had the luxury of time because they weren’t facing much competition.”
Buyers held rare bargaining power
While Redfin reported that prices still inched higher nationally, the firm stressed that recent gains paled next to the pandemic era, when home values rose as much as 21% year over year and nearly 2% in a single month.
At the same time, financing costs remained a headwind. The average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate briefly dipped below 6% in late February, according to Freddie Mac, before rebounding above 6.2% in mid‑March as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled bond markets.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall mortgage applications still rose 3.2% in early March, suggesting some borrowers moved to lock in rates ahead of further volatility.
Regional markets diverged
The national average masked sharp local swings. Home prices fell month over month in 16 of the 50 largest US metros in February, with the biggest declines in Jacksonville (‑4%), Providence (‑1.4%) and Columbus (‑1.1%), according to Redfin.
The largest gains were in Charlotte (3.7%), Portland (2.1%) and West Palm Beach (2.1%).
Prices also fell year over year in 16 metros, led by San Antonio (‑5.1%), Jacksonville (‑4.4%) and Minneapolis (‑3.8%), while San Francisco (15.2%), Chicago (9.3%) and New York (9.2%) saw the fastest annual increases.
The February slowdown suggests that, for now, originators would be working a market where leverage sits with rate‑sensitive but better‑informed buyers, and where disciplined pricing, flexible concessions and strong borrower coaching matter more than chasing volume in a boom that clearly passed.
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
