Why optimism fades as spring buying season approaches
After market headwinds dampened the 2025 spring buying season, there was optimism that this spring would be different.
Mortgage rates trended downward at the end of 2025 and fell even further at the beginning of 2026.
Meanwhile, home prices had slowed their growth heading into the new year, and many affordability measurements showed some improvement in many parts of the country.
However, recent geopolitical turmoil, combined with some job layoff concerns, has squashed some of the optimism many industry pros had going into the busiest time of the year.
Veronique Perrin (pictured top left) and Alana Lindsay (pictured top right) are real estate agents for Coldwell Banker Warburg. They each had thoughts on what the spring buying season looks like in the face of new uncertainties.
Perrin said there were hopes for a promising spring, but those hopes now seem a bit dimmed.
“The spring market looked promising, but timing is everything,” Perrin told Mortgage Professional America. “The very recent turn of events will most likely be the end of what we had anticipated to be a strong spring market. But, interestingly enough, after a brutal winter, the clients I am currently working with are responding in various ways to the rollercoaster of current events.”
Supply still an issue
Lindsay concurred that while there could be a bump in activity, it may not be as strong as in previous years.
“My prediction for spring 2026 is that we will definitely see an uptick in activity, but it won't be a spring 2022-style market,” Lindsay told Mortgage Professional America. “It will not be as exemplary as it has been in years past. Now this is due to a number of factors, such as inflation still being higher than what people are comfortable with, and supply is still lower than what is needed.”
In addition to the geopolitical uncertainty, many big cities like New York continue to struggle with supply constraints.
“For example, we should end the month of March in Manhattan at 1,150 units, but are only in the 900s right now,” Lindsay said. “Demand is also not as high as it should be, even though mortgage rates have eased a bit, with them falling below 6% for the first time in 3.5 years.
“Couple all of these aforementioned factors with macroeconomic impacts like layoffs and geopolitical situations around the world, and it has affected people's mindsets and given them pause about purchasing property in New York City and, more broadly, in the United States. There are still a lot of hesitant buyers out there.”
Perrin has also experienced hesitant buyers, as general concern is causing them to remain on the sidelines. She noted some very qualified buyers still deciding to wait.
“There is palpable uneasiness everywhere,” Perrin said. “Several clients who are very qualified and were ready, willing, and able to buy have put their searches on hold. They indicated to me they want to stay ‘fluid’ because everything is so uncertain. They don't want to commit to owning real estate again, or for the first time, and be bogged down by the hassle of cashing out if they want to pick up and leave.”
Meanwhile, Perrin said sellers are continuing to find their way to the market, hoping to be met by buyers when they get there.
“I am preparing several listings for clients at different life stages, all of whom are now opting to sell and rent next to keep their geographic options open,” Perrin said.
Optimism for summer?
Lindsay said that while there is some hesitation in some buyers, others are ready to jump back into the market. However, they’re looking to move at their own pace and not in a hurry to make a deal.
“A few of my clients have been putting off buying for years, and some are finally ready to pull the trigger as mortgage rates trend lower,” Lindsay said. “However, there is no sense of urgency in their timelines. They are definitely taking their time looking at units, as their timelines have stretched due to these factors. The ones who feel a sense of urgency are those who have to move due to major factors like lease expirations, rent increases, job changes, etc.”
There is still optimism that things will pick up later in the year, especially when the rental season hits big cities. Perrin said people still want to live in big cities, and she’s hopeful that things will continue to pick up heading into summertime.
“I think the real estate market will still be very strong this Summer,” Perrin said. “People in my neighborhood know I represent landlords in the area, and I get requests all the time about any vacancies. But most of the tenants I placed since COVID stayed put.
“The limited turnover makes for limited inventory and inflated prices. So many people are still moving to New York from all over the US and the world. All have already been facing an extremely competitive market this year, so it will only get more competitive during the high rental season.”
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