Mortgage market chatter in recent weeks has centered on the prospect of a meltdown
With Thanksgiving kicking off the holiday season last week, one of the things mortgage brokers face this time of year is answering questions from family members not in the mortgage business.
Brokers also have to spend time debunking internet rumors that often predict the worst-case scenarios for the US housing market. Before the turkey even came out of the oven this year, they’ve got a new rumor people will be talking about.
A podcast dropped on YouTube this week that sparked headlines across Newsweek and other news outlets. The podcast was Thoughtful Money by Adam Taggert, and his guest was housing analyst Melody Wright.
On this podcast, Wright forecasted a downward price correction in the housing market that she said would be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.
“I think…we’re going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the home price, the median home price. And so that is going to be worse than 2008. This could devolve a lot faster than last time,” Wright was quoted by Newsweek as saying on the podcast.
Industry experts who have spoken with Mortgage Professional America don’t see it that way. Neither does Fannie Mae in their recently-published forecast, nor does the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in their forecast.
Modest growth, not a crash
RJ Baxter, branch manager at Choice Mortgage Group in Denver, Colorado, told Mortgage Professional America that he expects house price growth to remain steady in 2026.
“If I had to put money on it, I think home values go up really modestly, like 1% nationwide,” Baxter said. “I think we're probably going to continue in that same appreciation level for a little while longer, maybe 12 months. I don't think we're going to see anything wacky with quickly increasing home values, but I think activity is likely to pick up.”
Because of current economic conditions, Baxter expects rates to continue to slide into 2026, which should set up a strong spring buying season.
“I think rates come down,” he said. “I think that's likely to happen for a lot of reasons. The economy is looking shaky, and job numbers are looking really weak. Inflation, even though they keep talking about it, I think that's likely heading a little bit lower. All these things point to the likelihood of lower interest rates.
“As lower interest rates happen, more buyers come in, and also more sellers. There are a lot of sellers who are locked into their 3% mortgage, but they want to move. I've had people literally tell me, ‘I'm going to stay put until rates get into the fives, and then we want to move, but I want to wait until it gets a little bit closer to what I'm at.’ I think that's going to unlock a lot of activity.”
Another clickbait headline
However, when these doomsday headlines hit the internet, they add another reason for buyers and sellers to pause any potential plans. Which means brokers have to go back to work trying to convince potential customers that the market crash being forecasted isn’t going to happen.
Andrew Kunisawa, senior loan officer with Accelerated Lending Group, said these conversations with customers are a critical part of a mortgage broker’s job.
“I think one of the things that we try to do as brokers is educate people about not focusing on what the media is telling people,” Kunisawa told Mortgage Professional America. “Because every time they see something in the media about interest rates dropping, they hear, ‘You know the market is crashing. There's going to be a crash. There's going to be this.’
“Every year, the media has predicted a market crash. Every year. That's basically to get people to read the article. All those clickbait articles are like that. They've got a sensational headline. So we work hard to try to educate people to say the sky's not falling.”
RJ Baxter of Choice Mortgage Group says buyers are returning as rates drop, but uncertainty and pandemic-era rates still hold some back. He uses buydowns and net-worth comparisons to guide hesitant clients toward action.https://t.co/NflTAB64KO
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 8, 2025
By staying connected to what’s actually happening in the market, brokers can explain to customers why a crash is highly unlikely and reassure customers that they’re not making a mistake by getting into the market.
“We tell them, ‘According to the numbers that we see, here's what's happening,’” Kunisawa said. “We have access to the people who are the decision makers, the people who set interest rates for these companies. They're the ones that we listen to, not CNN, not all these other companies. We listen to the people who actually are in the know. And that definitely gives us an advantage.”
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