How a price correction could get new developments completed
The state of Florida has been dealing with issues in the condominium space for a while, and some of those issues are likely to carry over into 2026.
While some are hopeful that regulatory changes could help revitalize the condo market, one executive said another factor could help get development rolling, especially in South Florida.
Zack Simkins (pictured top), managing director at Vaster, said a market correction could help spur a new wave of development in the Miami area. This could lead to a condo surge in 2026.
“In Florida, specifically Miami, the key phrase I always say is repricing,” Simkins told Mortgage Professional America. “Where are things going to get repriced at? On the commercial front, people acquired land at elevated premiums during COVID and are trying to break ground on their developments.
“Their costs might be too high, and they may be forced to sell or abandon their project. And if they sell at losses, that's going to hopefully, you know, refresh and replace the market to a point of more stability for the next project or the next wave of development.”
‘Survival of the fittest’
Simkins said some of the needed repricing has already begun, as projects that were unfinished or fell through end up going on the market again.
“Because anytime a project fails, that hurts Miami in the market,” Simkins said. “If a condo project tries to break ground and it fails, that hurts it. If a commercial project tries to build a new office building and gives up, that hurts the market. So there's been some repricing already.”
The encouraging thing, Simkins said, is that companies acquiring some of these projects are in a much better position to complete them. It gives brokers a chance to complete another deal, and it gives a valuable piece of land a second chance.
“There are some retrades of sites that developers just simply aren't executing on and are now passing the baton to someone else, which is good,” he said. “Hopefully, the next party has a better basis, a more comfortable basis, that is able to execute it. So in 2026 it's about repricing.”
He said another factor in South Florida will be competition for space. This presents opportunities for mortgage brokers, as he believes there are many buying opportunities available.
“Competition is really the next key word I would use,” he said. “There's a lot of supply out there on condominiums, a lot of branded projects, a lot of opportunities for buyers. So it's going to be survival of the fittest. You’re going to see that play out in its fullest. The market will tell you which ones are attractive to the buyers and which ones are not.”
Planning ahead
One piece of advice Simkins had for brokers and investors in South Florida was to plan ahead to identify the optimal sites for major projects. He believes it’s not enough to site plan for the present, but there must also be foresight into what the area will look like a couple of years down the road.
“I think the one key thing everyone should be aware of is that you need to be aware of the future,” he said. “I think you need to have a vision of what's going to be happening next within the city. Where are the new hot spots going to emerge? Where do you feel confident in the new restaurants popping up, or new shopping opportunities, or new schools?
“But with condos, I think the one thing some people don't look at is the future. And being a condominium buyer, you really need to be focused on it, specifically on preconstruction, because you're not buying the market today, you're buying the market two to three years from now.”
Max Slyusarchuk, founder of A&D Mortgage, is advocating for an end to Florida’s higher condo down payment rule. He says the adjustment could increase liquidity, stabilize the market, and improve housing affordability for residents.https://t.co/9AZlfHlOS8
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 18, 2025
Simkins believes brokers and investors need to learn from the lessons of the 2008 housing crisis as they plan their next moves in 2026 and beyond.
“The Miami condo market was hit drastically because you had people coming in with high purchase prices on their contracts because they were being sold a vision, a story, something of the future that didn't materialize. And when it was about to be due, they were underwater. And that led to a quick acceleration of pricing. Then the market had to get retested, and a lot of projects failed or had to get different various workouts in order to be salvaged.”
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