Why brokers need to have their pipelines ready to go in case of a rate drop
While the increase in home prices has slowed nationwide over the past couple of months, high prices, coupled with elevated interest rates, have still caused buyers to hesitate.
This problem is particularly pronounced in high-priced markets, such as California. With average homes approaching or exceeding $1 million, homebuyers are struggling with affordability.
Matt Gouge (pictured top), mortgage broker and founding partner at UMortgage, has seen the hesitancy firsthand.
“For me as a mortgage broker in California, it's an interesting time,” Gouge told Mortgage Professional America. “The buyer pullback is real, and I'm seeing it where people are truly being priced out, not just in housing, but I think, in cost of living.”
Even with elevated prices, Gouge said some homebuyers want to either enter the California market or remain there.
“California is an expensive place to live, but it's a great place to live,” Gouge said. “There are mountains, beaches and all kinds of great stuff. It felt like in the past, people migrated away for one reason or another, as a preference. Now the conversation is around the cost of living.”
‘Absolute certainty’ buyers are there
In many large metropolitan markets, the balance between a buyers' and sellers' market may change depending on which neighborhood you check.
“On the other side of the coin, it's wild for me to see a client that's offering on a place in the Bay Area and has multiple offers, a couple $100,000 above list,” Gouge said. “There's still a limited number of homes in California. Even though the demand has lessened, the amount of supply being as constricted as it has been over the last few years is keeping California relatively competitive on the real estate side.”
Buyers and sellers are both waiting for even a slight decline in mortgage rates to act. While some people believe buyers are just giving up for now, Gouge said that’s not the case.
“I think a lot of us are waiting with bated breath to see, do we go down to 5.5% interest rates and demand surges back,” he said. “All this sideline demand (exists), because I know what's in my Arrive platform as far as pre-approved buyers who are just like waiting and seeing. There are just such huge tranches of buyers on the edge. They might buy, or they might not buy.
“That's probably something people wouldn't necessarily believe, but I know it's real. I'm not just saying that if rates go to 5% or 5.5%, there's going to be a ton more demand. I know it with absolute certainty, because there are so many buyers who came into the application process ready to buy a house.”
While a drop in rates will benefit homebuyers nationwide, the impact is even larger in high-value markets like California.
“Buyers hit a little bit of a speed bump with 6.75% with these house prices,” Gouge said. “I don't know if $4,800 a month is something that they want to commit to. Give them 5.25%, and that payment turns into $4,200, and they buy next week.
“That’s going to be interesting to see over the next 12 to 18 months. What happens with rates? What happens with the new Fed chair? And what happens with inflation and politics in California, Texas, Florida, and larger markets that are more susceptible to some of these changes?”
Like a nationwide family
Gouge credits his success in the industry to groups like the Association of Independent Mortgage Experts (AIME) and the Brokers Action Coalition (BAC) for providing a network to support brokers’ needs.
“I think, as a mortgage broker who's been doing it for 11 years, my recipe for success is being a resource for clients and referral partners, and being able to give them great advice,” he said. “And the reason I'm able to do so is because I’m plugged into and connected with great organizations like AIME and BAC. I'm having conversations with brokers from around the country who are the same, education-based, consumer-centric businesses.
“It continues to evolve. And I'm glad to be in a position where, with the support of those great organizations, I can evolve with it.”
Steve Marks (Ohana Mortgage Solutions) is successfully utilizing multigenerational mortgage loans in Hawaii, where cultural norms often include multi-family living arrangements, to help first-time homebuyers qualify for mortgages they otherwise couldn't. https://t.co/jzdqjxSdKl
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) July 23, 2025
When Gouge transitioned from the retail space to become a broker, he knew it would be a completely different business structure, which is why an organization like AIME is such a benefit for him.
“I remember 2018 I went from retail to broker,” Gouge said. “Especially in my local market with all these larger retail operations, they were like, ‘You're going to go become a broker. They work from home. They've got no resources. They’ve got no structure, no systems.’ And the whole broker community has been amazing, where it's almost like a nationwide family and company.”
One of the biggest differences Gouge noticed was the concept of brokers all helping each other, rather than viewing it as one broker taking another broker’s business.
“It is super cool, because it's like 500 different companies all banded together, sharing resources, helping each other out,” he said. “They’ve got abundance mentality and don't view each other as competitors. You know, we're all out here. I looked recently, and I think in the 10 counties surrounding me, there was $10 billion originated in the first half of 2025. I only need $50 million of that to make a great living. So there's plenty of loans to be had.”
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