How tariffs and tensions are reshaping the housing market for buyers and brokers
While some housing markets have seen a surge in inventory, others continue to lack the necessary inventory for potential buyers. This is true in Maine, where areas have very few houses on the market. With homeowners tied to low mortgage rates, one broker believes rates will need to drop more than a point to spur action.
Skylar Welch (pictured top), founder and managing partner of Maine Pointe Lending, believes incremental rate declines aren’t doing enough to encourage people to sell houses.
“I would love to see rates drop into the 5s,” Welch told Mortgage Professional America. “I would love the rate to start with a five. I don’t think we’re going to get into the high 4s anytime soon, but the low- to mid-5s would be a safe place to be. It continues the moment where people aren’t scared to sell, and people aren’t scared to buy.”
She also believes that a rate drop below 6% would fuel a surge in refinances. But most importantly, it would add to housing inventory in markets where available homes are limited.
“It’s kind of that middle ground where we would see enough of a decrease that would give a lot of people a great refi opportunity for them to start saving money that they could put back into the economy,” Welch said. “But we would also see an opportunity where people would get off that fear of listing their home and buying a new home. It would be more comfortable than the 6s, 7s, and 8s. Those are scary.”
Welch notes that it’s not just mortgages that would add money to the economy, but also all the products and services that come with buying a house.
“When someone buys a house, guess what else they buy?” she said. “They use a million services. It would create a healthy circle of all the services and products being used. If no one is moving, and no one is selling, and no one is buying, that’s not happening. I’m not saying that nobody’s buying, but it’s just not as active because of that fear.”
Tariffs adding to hesitation
Because the housing market is so tight in Maine, Welch hasn’t seen a reduction of Canadian buyers in her market. However, she has seen fewer Canadian visitors in the area. The combination of tariffs and ill-will toward the United States, stemming from President Trump's annexation threats, has left many Canadians unwilling to cross the border.
Welch has seen it hurt businesses in her area.
“I did grow up on the Canadian border, so the tariffs are something I’m seeing a bigger effect on local businesses,” she said. “I would say the bigger effect I’m seeing is on self-employed business owners. They’re feeling the effects, which means they’re getting nervous to do things like buy a house. They’re nervous about how their business is going to be affected.”
Redfin’s Chen Zhao says political discourse and trade tensions are driving Canadians away from the US housing market, with searches down over 26%. Interest in major metros like Phoenix and Chicago also plunged.https://t.co/sETiM5r2I3
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) July 11, 2025
She said the challenge for these businesses is that they need to raise prices to stay in business, but this is causing them to lose out to online companies that can undercut local prices.
“I’ve talked to a couple of local businesses lately, and they were saying how drastically the price of the products they use is going up,” Welch said. “They’re not sure that they’re going to be able to sell things affordably for people locally. They’re going to have to raise their prices to the point that they’re worried about people being able to shop and buy the things. They’re going to go to some online company and say, ‘Okay, I’m going to find something cheaper on Amazon and from China.’
“More than it affecting personal buyers, it’s creating a sense of fear that is taking people who were actively looking and putting them back behind the fence. They’re not moving forward because they don’t know how their businesses are going to be affected.”
A sense of community
Welch credits the Association of Independent Mortgage Experts (AIME) with helping her throughout her career. She said the organization has unified what could otherwise be a fragmented profession.
“I’ve been a part of AIME since the beginning,” Welch said. “What AIME brought to the broker community was a sense of community. They brought brokers that were on their own little island together and gave them a voice. They also gave them a network of people to lean on.”
Not only did the organization provide a community for Welch and other brokers, but it also introduced her to new tools and knowledge.
“I didn’t know that I was closing a lot of deals,” she said. “I didn’t know there were systems that collected documents. I didn’t know that there were lenders that did products. I was just in my own little world in my one broker shop that I’d worked at my whole career. I didn’t have people that I could run scenarios with.”
In addition to technical and knowledge support, AIME provided a network of brokers who know exactly what she’s going through.
“It’s created lifelong friendships,” she said. “In the world of being a broker, I realize that no one in my real life understands what my day-to-day is. But people in my broker life do. Even above and beyond asking for best practices and collaboration, it has provided a resource for venting and talking about struggles that we have in our market.
“Giving those types of resources is invaluable, and that's why I feel like I will always be a part of AIME, because that’s what it provided for me.”
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