Costs eased and listings rose, but buyers still moved carefully
The United States housing market entered 2026 in a holding pattern, with buyers cautious, sellers finally returning and brokers betting on a busier – but not booming – spring.
Redfin reported that the typical home that sold in January spent 64 days on the market. That's the longest stretch in six years and roughly a week longer than a year earlier, while pending sales fell 3.3% year over year.
Homes that did sell were part of a market where sellers outnumbered buyers by a record gap and where leverage shifted toward purchasers who were willing to wait, negotiate and walk away.
House hunters were hesitant in part because borrowing and living costs remained high. The weekly average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate hovered around 6.1%, near a three‑year low but still roughly double pandemic‑era troughs. The median US sale price sat at about $379,950, up 1.2% from a year earlier, according to Redfin’s national metrics.
The median monthly mortgage payment, though, fell nearly 5% to around $2,559 as rates eased and wages grew roughly 4%, offering incremental relief to borrowers whose budgets have been stretched.
On the supply side, more owners appeared ready to test the market. New listings rose 1.1% year over year in the four weeks ending February 1, 2025, the third consecutive weekly increase after two months of declines, and inventory edged toward the 4–5 months of supply traditionally viewed as balanced.
Rocket Companies CEO Varun Krishna projects loan production at a four‑year high, while December’s 5.1% rise in home sales and surging mortgage applications signal recovery. Brokers like Melissa Cohn stress stable rates and Fed cuts as decisive.https://t.co/dgP0zd5xPK
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) February 5, 2026
In metros such as Milwaukee and Philadelphia, prices posted mid‑ to high‑single‑digit annual gains even as coastal markets like Fort Lauderdale and San Jose saw declines.
In Austin – which Redfin identified as one of the slowest major markets – Redfin Premier agent Monica DiSchiano said the adjustment has been painful but necessary.
“The local market is slowly returning to stability,” DiSchiano said. “January was pretty busy on the selling side, largely because homeowners have finally come to terms with slower demand and lower sale prices than we were seeing during the pandemic buying boom. And house hunters who had disappeared are trickling back–but they’re picky and they want perfection if they’re shelling out for a 6%-plus mortgage rate.”
In Milwaukee, where Redfin data showed some of the strongest price gains among large metros, Redfin Premier agent Ben Ambroch said he saw a similar rebalancing.
“With each passing month I see more sellers willing to forgo record-low rates and accept that it’s time to move,” he said. “That’s leading to more inventory, which is helping attract buyers. I’m seeing a steady stream of house hunters touring homes, though they are taking their time, requesting inspections, and negotiating with sellers.”
Redfin’s economists previously framed 2026 as the early phase of a “Great Housing Reset,” in which affordability would improve gradually rather than through a sharp correction.
At the same time, the Mortgage Bankers Association projected single‑family originations would climb to about $2.2 trillion in 2026, while the National Association of Realtors forecast a roughly 14% rebound in existing‑home sales – outlooks about a slow‑burn recovery rather than a snap‑back rally.
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