Stable rates near three-year lows set the tone for a cautious spring market
US mortgage rates stayed pinned near 6% this week, reinforcing a new phase of stability that contrasted with the sharp swings of the past two years and set a measured backdrop for the spring selling season.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.11% for the week ending February 5, 2026, barely changed from 6.10% a week earlier and well below 6.89% a year ago.
The 15-year fixed averaged 5.50%, up a hair from 5.49% and down from 6.05% a year prior.
“For the last several weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has remained at its lowest level in years,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.
“The combination of improving affordability and availability of homes to purchase is a positive sign for buyers and sellers heading into the spring home sales season.”
Narrower spreads, steady Treasurys
Behind the headline stability, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered just above 4.2%, little changed from a week earlier, even as the spread between Treasurys and mortgage rates narrowed from the unusually wide levels seen after the pandemic.
Industry analysts said in December that tighter spreads already delivered “one of the biggest behind-the-scenes storylines” for borrowers, with 30-year rates no longer rising one-for-one with moves in the 10-year.
“A tighter spread alone can bring mortgage rates down meaningfully,” Kurt Brandly, president at Greenside Capital, told Mortgage Professional America.
Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, previously said it has been “all about what the Fed is going to do,” but argued that fiscal policy, deficits and market expectations around the 10-year are now doing more of the work in setting mortgage pricing.
Cautious optimism for 2026 volumes
The Mortgage Bankers Association projected total single-family originations would rise about 8% to $2.2 trillion in 2026, with purchase volume up roughly 7.7% and refinance activity up just over 9%.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun expects existing-home sales to climb about 14% in 2026 as mortgage rates drift around 6%, helped by job growth and slightly looser affordability, but warned that inventory and pricing would keep conditions tight.
Those projections followed a year in which MPA chronicled rates “slip to lowest level in a year” at 6.3% last October and then “hold near 2025 lows” in December around 6.2%, underscoring how borrowers and lenders gradually adjusted to a mid‑6% world.
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