The on-again, off-again tariff threats have left industry execs just waiting to see the fallout
Since the beginning of April, when the Trump administration announced its intention to implement tariffs on countries where it believed a trade imbalance existed, negotiations have been ongoing. With a new target date of August 1 for completing trade deals, one executive is still taking a wait-and-see approach.
Robert Martinek (pictured top), director at EisnerAmper, remains skeptical about how many of the high tariffs being threatened will be implemented by the administration.
“Tariffs are the big unknown,” Martinek told Mortgage Professional America. “I’m a believer that I don’t think it’s going to have a big effect. I think construction is planned to be down. You know that you’re going to get steel and aluminum, and concrete is up. But it typically works itself out.”
Trump has posted letters on his Truth Social account over the past couple of days detailing the new tariff amounts that will be imposed if trade deals aren’t completed by the August 1 deadline. And while Martinek isn’t sure what will happen, he believes that if they are implemented, the impact may be muted by the lack of planned construction.
“If they implemented all the tariffs and all of a sudden we saw everyone saying, ‘I want to build now,’ I think it would have a big effect,” Martinek said. “I just haven’t seen it that much. And I think that people are kind of getting used to the fact that I don’t think it’s ever going to be implemented. I think it’s all a negotiation ploy, which was what a lot of people probably think, too.”
“It might have some short-term effects. We haven’t seen it through inflation with some tariffs (already in place). I think if they’re implemented, at that point in time, people are going to deal with it when they see it.”
Looking for the bounce back
Martinek said everyone is looking for sectors that will see a large rebound over the last half of 2025. One area where he has seen a rebound is in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).
“Everybody’s looking for the bounce back,” he said. “I think CMBS is like 40% above what it was last year. So I think it’s a slow turn. I think the fact that we’re not going to get a lot of new construction, I think we’re going to see vacancy rates creep down. I think we’re going to see less product in the industrial market, which is going to help the industrial market. Same as the multifamily stuff being absorbed.”
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— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) July 8, 2025
He said that, for the most part, many investors are still sitting back and waiting for the right time to jump into a new project. Although he said some areas always have those who buck the trend.
“I remember Texas from a few years ago,” Martinek said. “The vacancy rate would be high, and some guy would put up a skyscraper right there. Texas is kind of its own animal.”
Working through the headwinds
With elevated interest rates and market uncertainty, Martinek believes investors will likely continue to exercise patience. Those who are ready to act are competing with other eager investors to find those good opportunities.
“There’s still going to be areas of pain,” he said. “But, the good quality properties, good tenants, everyone’s kind of chasing those same things. There’s demand out there. I think they’re waiting to see, and I think when the tariffs end, and interest rates come down a little bit, people will start dipping their feet in the water a little bit more.
“I think it’s kind of business as usual, kind of how it’s been plodding along. I think that’s the next six months, I see the same thing. I think the worst is behind us, but I think that it’s going to be slow. It’s not going to be a V-shaped recovery.”
In the New York area, another factor is the ongoing mayoral race. Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary for NYC mayor last month, is promising to freeze rent increases in stabilized units. Supporters believe it can bring relief to renters struggling with day-to-day affordability.
In contrast, opponents believe it will lead to higher costs for tenants in housing not covered by rent caps and hurt small landlords relying on rental income.
It's another piece of uncertainty that Martinek is dealing with as he looks ahead.
“I think there’s the ambition that people think it’s going to improve,” Martinek said. “I think it’s slowly going to improve, too. If we know about the tariffs, and if we know about who’s going to be the next mayor, and if we know about the policies, I think things will be clearer.”
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