One broker reveals how to win in a volatile market
After mortgage rates gradually improved throughout 2025, the industry seemed to be optimistic that 2026 would continue the same path, with rates improving throughout the year.
Forecasts are not always accurate, and they can’t account for large-scale events that shake up the markets. Early in the year, an order from the Trump administration for Fannie and Freddie to buy Treasury bonds helped push rates into the high-5s.
However, one month later, the Iran War started, and oil prices spiked. This caused inflation to increase, and Treasuries followed as well. This pulled mortgage rates back into the mid-6s.
With each new headline comes a new swing in rates. On Monday, the 10-year Treasury rate was down nearly 10 basis points, which will likely lead to mortgage rates dropping later in the day.
Navigating this wild start to the year is a challenge even for veteran mortgage brokers. However, it can be very intimidating for first-time homebuyers watching the market yo-yo up and down. One broker said one of the biggest keys is to make sure customers know that volatility is more normal than they think.
Samantha Shelton (pictured top), mortgage broker and president at Align Lending, said the lower rates got the year off to a flying start, but now it’s about education to ensure that momentum continues.
“We started the year off with a bang,” Shelton told Mortgage Professional America. “It was the busiest first quarter I have seen in my entire career. Obviously, navigating volatility is a little bit more challenging. So the biggest thing that I'm focusing on with my clients is helping them understand that volatility, while we don't want to accept it most times, is normal.”
Focusing on the bigger picture
If homebuyers are hyper-focused on what the current mortgage rate is, they might miss out on the opportunity to get the house they want. That’s why Shelton said it is critical to make sure the buyer is focused on the path ahead.
“The market moves, sometimes multiple times in one day, but buying a home is a long-term decision, so my role is to help them zoom out and focus on the bigger picture instead of reacting to every headline that they read. I always remind my clients that you aren't marrying the rate, you're marrying your home. Rates can change, but the opportunity to build the stability and long-term wealth through home ownership is still very much there and very strong.”
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Shelton said brokers need to be transparent with their clients because that is what will build confidence in the eventual decision they will make.
“Everything in this market is going to require some education, and I want to make sure that my clients understand the full payment picture, including your taxes or insurance, how those can adjust over time, because that transparency helps them reduce the surprises and create more confidence in their decision.
“We want to make sure that our clients understand all of their options. Sometimes it makes sense to move forward now and refinance later if the market improves, but my goal is always to make sure that my clients feel prepared and not pressured. Volatility doesn't mean instability; it just means more strategy.”
The education part has to start right away, especially with new buyers who might not know anything else about the mortgage process except what the current interest rates are.
“I would say most new buyers who come to me are very rate sensitive,” Shelton said. “But within the conversation that we're having, that conversation turns to what's important right now. Obviously, everybody focuses on the rate like it's the deciding factor, when, in reality, if you tell me you're comfortable paying $2,500 a month, and the house that you want you can get for $2,500 a month, why is the rate stopping you?”
Lock, or don’t lock?
Another conversation that becomes a big part of the transaction is locking the rate, especially when mortgage rates are bouncing around as much as they have been over the last couple of months. Shelton said that’s something she deals with regularly.
“This is actually a very common situation that we're dealing with, even at the beginning of the year, when rates were a lot lower than they are right now,” she said. “We don't have a magical crystal ball to look ahead to tomorrow or next week or in three months from now. If we did, we would have a very different strategy.
“When I am having conversations with my clients, we try to shift the conversation away from interest rates and more toward payment. Your bank account isn't paying an interest rate; it's paying a mortgage payment. So we want to make sure that you're comfortable with that payment.”
The conversations about rate lock start very early in the process, and Shelton believes it’s about getting the potential homebuyer to the price they’re looking to pay rather than trying to guess when rates are going to be at their lowest.
“When we're having those initial conversations, if you are comfortable with this payment, we should lock,” she said. “If rates change by an eighth, that’s going to change your payment a couple of dollars. Waiting out the market has never had a huge positive impact on people. When you wait out, you wait yourself right out of the better payment.”
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