Broker: Rate management is a long-term play, not some ‘roulette wheel’
Everyone with a connection to the mortgage market, whether that person is a broker, a current homeowner, or a hopeful homebuyer, was hoping 2026 would bring lower mortgage rates.
With the abnormally low rates from the pandemic still fresh in everyone’s minds, some online experts have been predicting that this would be the year that rates would plummet again. Of course, some of those people have been predicting that for the last two years.
After an early-year tumble, rates have moved back into the mid-6s and are currently holding steady. The 10-year Treasury seems to have found its level based on the current geopolitical situation and is waiting for what happens next, good or bad.
Mortgage rates may continue to slide on Tuesday as the 10-year is currently down slightly. But one veteran broker is urging the industry to stop waiting for very low rates to make a return.
Amir Nurani (pictured top), broker-owner at Left Coast Leaders, said that rates aren’t going to fall at the snap of a finger or a wave of a wand, and brokers need to prepare for reality instead.
“I think the main thing coming into this year is there's not going to be this magical moment that I'm forecasting where rates are just going to fall,” Nurani told Mortgage Professional America. “Unfortunately, you saw this in 2024, we heard, ‘Hey, rates are going to drop in 2024.’ Then you saw the rhetoric again at the end of 2024 and at the end of 2025. You heard the same thing. I think that's a lot of wishful thinking.”
More normalized rates
Historically, where rates have settled is much closer to normal than the low rates of the pandemic or the higher rates that followed.
“I think the current rate environment where we're in the high-5s or low-6s, those are normalized rates for conventional mortgages,” Nurani said. “Those are not high rates. We're going to be in that environment for a while. So what I'm telling people is make the moves that make the most sense for you, to accommodate your current situation right now. I would not put a lot of stock into the fact that rates are all of a sudden going to plummet for some magical reason tomorrow.”
While some people may be waiting for lower rates to refinance a current mortgage, Nurani said some people can’t wait for rates to drop to make a move in the market.
“If you're somebody who doesn’t have the luxury of time, for example, I have somebody who got into a contract to buy a home yesterday,” he said. “They don't have the ability to wait out the market. They need to just move forward, buy their house, and they will deal with a better financing structure down the line.
“If you're talking about somebody that is riddled with debt, and it's creating a significant amount of discomfort in their life, the difference between a half percent in the mortgage rate is not going to create some sort of magical solution for them. The magical solution is extracting the equity and consolidating the debt.”
Spinning the roulette wheel
The best brokers relish the chance to be a valued advisor for their customers. They understand the market and do their best to give their clients advice that fits their current situation.
On the other hand, Nurani has seen some brokers who have treated market projections like they’re on the casino floor.
“I've been in this business for over 20 years now,” he said. “I've been doing this a long time. I've seen quite a bit, and I've seen quite a few faces. There are a lot of loan officers who will treat the mortgage business like a roulette wheel. Like you're in a casino trying to hit it at the right time. And unfortunately, you have a lot of customers who treat it the exact same way. They’re like, ‘Is today the day to lock? Is tomorrow the day to lock?’
“The way that I explain this stuff to people as I go, ‘Look, this isn't a casino. You're not trying to bet on black and hope that it hits.’ You're systematically managing debt over the long term.”
He said that the idea behind managing the debt is that you might not get the ideal rate for your mortgage debt right away, but over time and through a series of moves, you can get down to that rate.
“You're going to take two or three swipes at that mortgage before you get it to the utopic rate,” Nurani said. “Today, you'll get into range A, tomorrow, you'll get into range B, and then the day after, you'll get into range C, and that'll be the last time you touch a mortgage. Where you land on that spectrum is going to vary. Sometimes you'll be on the high end, sometimes you'll be on the low end, but it's a series of moves that get you to the perfect spot.”
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