Analysis reveals surge in borrower searches before and after the Bank of England’s base rate decisions
Mortgage search patterns around the announcement of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision have followed a quite predictable sequence, according to new data from mortgage tech provider Twenty7tec.
The firm’s review of five years of search activity shows that borrower engagement typically rises a couple of days ahead of the Thursday rate announcement, slows on the day itself, and then increases sharply the following Monday.
The analysis indicates that the Tuesday before each rate decision is usually the busiest day for mortgage searches in the month. The Tuesday nine days prior is the second busiest. In contrast, the day of the announcement ranks only as the 10th busiest day in the four-week period leading up to the decision.
Looking at a seven-day rolling average, the busiest period consistently falls on the Monday after the rate announcement, with the seven most active days spanning from the Tuesday before to the Monday after the decision.
The data also highlights differences in search volumes depending on whether the Bank raises, holds, or lowers the base rate. On decision days, the average number of searches is 52,421 when rates are increased, 50,033 when held, and 51,536 when reduced. However, the seven-day period around a hold decision sees the highest overall activity, with 360,508 searches, compared to 357,145 for a rise and 348,206 for a cut. Twenty7tec attributes this pattern to the stability and certainty that a steady rate brings, which tends to boost borrower engagement.
Recent figures reflect this trend. On Tuesday, Nov. 4, standard residential mortgage searches reached 56,511, a 13.1% increase from 49,979 the previous Tuesday. On the day of the Bank’s decision, searches totalled 55,704, a higher figure than seen in previous announcements. Based on historical data, Monday (Nov. 10) is expected to be the busiest day of the month for both brokers and borrowers.
“If we were to give brokers and lenders just one piece of advice on Decision Rate Day, it would be this: don’t take Monday off,” said Nathan Reilly, commercial director at Twenty7tec.
“Once the Bank makes its move, lenders spend the weekend adjusting products, and by Monday, the systems are updated and borrowers are ready to act. It’s the same pattern every time.”
Nakita Moss, head of lender at Twenty7tec, added: “With this decision marking the last major rate announcement of the year, we anticipate strong activity in early November, a short dip in December, and the usual sharp rebound in the first working days of January - one of the busiest periods for mortgage sourcing.”
Brokers should be prepared for increased enquiries and applications at this time, as borrowers react quickly to rate stability or changes. Efficient communication and readiness to process applications will help brokers capitalise on this predictable surge in demand.
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