ONS report has some surprising figures
England’s population is projected to grow by more than 6 per cent over the next decade, with significant regional and demographic disparities that may reshape demand for housing and mortgage lending, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Published on Tuesday, the 2022-based Subnational Population Projections show England’s population increasing from 57.1 million in mid-2022 to 60.8 million by mid-2032, with 302 of the 309 local authorities experiencing growth. Notably, the strongest gains are concentrated in outer metropolitan and rural areas, while a handful of coastal and post-industrial districts are forecast to shrink.
Tower Hamlets is set to be the fastest-growing authority, with a projected rise of over 20 per cent, driven largely by international migration and natural increase. Areas such as South Derbyshire, Stratford-on-Avon and South Norfolk are also among the top 10, with population increases ranging between 15 and 19 per cent.
This projected expansion in emerging regions is likely to intensify demand for residential development and, by extension, mortgage lending in suburban and semi-rural areas. Local authorities such as Central Bedfordshire and North West Leicestershire are expected to see population gains of over 14 per cent, bolstered by internal migration and family formation trends.
By contrast, population decline is forecast in six local authorities, including Gosport, Copeland and Barrow-in-Furness, each of which is expected to see population falls of more than 1 per cent over the decade. These areas are characterised by older populations and limited inward migration.
The regional divergence presents both challenges and opportunities for mortgage providers. Lenders may need to reassess growth assumptions for certain locations and adapt underwriting strategies to reflect demographic shifts, especially in areas with fast-growing working-age populations.
Meanwhile, the proportion of people of state pension age is set to rise in all but 11 local authorities. England’s overall old-age dependency ratio—the number of pensioners per 1,000 people of working age—is projected to increase from 275 to 287 by 2032. North Norfolk is expected to retain the highest ratio, with more than six pensioners for every ten working-age adults.
While this ageing profile could dampen lending appetite in some localities, it may also stimulate interest in later-life lending, equity release products and adapted housing developments. Areas with ageing populations but relatively stable overall growth, such as parts of the South West, may be particularly suited to such offerings.
In most English regions, internal migration is expected to offset natural population decline. However, in London and the West Midlands, population growth is largely attributed to higher birth rates and sustained levels of international migration, despite net internal outflows.
The South West is projected to see the fastest regional growth at 7.5 per cent, followed by the East of England and East Midlands. The North East, by contrast, is projected to grow by just 4.8 per cent over the period.
The ONS emphasised that these projections are not forecasts and do not account for economic or policy changes such as housing plans or fiscal measures. Nonetheless, they provide a valuable base layer for long-term mortgage lending models, especially in assessing the viability of future housing supply against population demand.
For lenders, the figures suggest an evolving landscape where demand may increasingly shift outside the core metropolitan centres, particularly towards local authorities with rising young populations and new housing allocations. Equally, an ageing population in coastal and rural areas may call for new strategies in later-life finance.
As housing supply and affordability continue to dominate the political and regulatory agenda, lenders will need to factor demographic nuance into risk assessments, branch footprint, and product design.
